French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beirut following the massive explosion that rocked the city reflected the trend of growing French activity in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in the context of the Libyan civil war and the conflict involving Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus. This activity represents an attempt to curb the weakening of French influence in the region in the face of mounting competition from other actors. Following the wave of terrorism that France suffered over the past decade, the Mediterranean has...
On August 13, 2020, a significant breakthrough between Israel and the United Arab Emirates was announced on the road to the establishment of full relations. The agreement, under the auspices of the United States, is an important reinforcement for the moderate pragmatic camp in the region against Iran and both Shiite and Sunni radicals. Vis-à-vis the Palestinians, the agreement removes the issue of unilateral annexation from the agenda, and improves opening conditions for negotiations and a future arrangement.
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
The July 10, 2020 decision in Turkey to convert Hagia Sophia in Istanbul from a museum back into a mosque aroused, as expected, many negative responses in the Christian world. It was, however, also severely criticized by Sunni Muslims in Arab states. It was argued that the measure would help empower Israel to attempt to change the status of al-Aqsa, and showed that Turkey was a threating revisionist player. On the other hand, some welcomed the decision, among them spokesmen from the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas – which reinforces the...
Israel’s process of annexing West Bank territory has restored the Palestinian issue to center stage, after Jerusalem succeeded over the past decade in pushing the issue to the margins of the regional and international agendas. The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a war game to examine the ramifications of Israel’s application of sovereignty over territories in the West Bank. In the scenario, following the Israeli government’s decision to apply sovereignty in limited scope to settlement blocs in the Jerusalem...
Following the signing of an agreement demarcating the maritime border between Turkey and the Government of National Accord in Libya, which inter alia disregards Greece’s claim that Rhodes and Crete have the right to an exclusive economic zone (EEZ), Ankara is threatening to send drillships in the coming months to the area where these islands are located. Turkey has already made good on similar threats in the past, when it sent drillships into the EEZ of Cyprus. The Turkish threat was issued against the backdrop of many years of...
Turkey’s military intervention in Libya has recently enabled a series of victories for the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), to the detriment of Khalifa Haftar and his backers in Cairo, Abu Dhabi, and Moscow. The reversal of fortune for the GNA, which over the weekend forced Haftar to propose a ceasefire, marks a major shift in the trajectory of the Libyan civil war and will likely cement Turkey’s role as a key arbiter in the ultimate resolution of the conflict. Should the recent developments prove...
Tension and rivalries within the Sunni camp are a defining aspect of the Middle East. The Sunni states are divided in part according to their respective levels of support for different shades of political Islam. In addition, Sunni states contest for status and influence in the region, and this rivalry also necessarily involves economic interests. The tension is reflected in the ongoing siege against Qatar, in the support of rival parties in the civil war in Libya, and in the competition over control of strategic locations along the...
Turkey-Israel relations began to deteriorate before the flotilla incident on May 31, 2010, but this unprecedented event in the bilateral relationship significantly accelerated the decline. To be sure, the poor relations between the countries and the lack of high-level diplomatic relations in the past two years cannot be pinned only on the ramifications of the incident. Nonetheless, the ramifications of the seizure of the Marmara, the largest boat in the flotilla, remain prominent among the causes of the current deep suspicion between...
Turkey reported its first coronavirus case relatively late, but since early April it has figured among the ten countries with the highest numbers of confirmed cases. It seems that economic considerations in Ankara still trump ideas on addressing the epidemic more effectively, even though in many other countries it is understood that without controlling the extent of the disease, the economy will suffer critical damage. Internal political considerations, in particular an effort to try and obstruct actions of mayors from opposition...
The campaign to conquer the Idlib governorate, the collapse of the relevant agreements, and President Assad’s determination, with Russian support, to return the region to his sovereignty could pose an existential dilemma for the Salafi-jihadist organizations operating there. At that point, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the central force opposing Assad and an example of a Salafi-jihadist organization that has evinced pragmatism and openness toward the Syrian locals, will have two main options: fighting to the end and subsequently...
The coronavirus is making its way across the Middle East, forcing states to prepare for the possible collapse of governing systems. The virus struck a region already buckling under the weight of armed conflicts, social upheaval, severe economic distress, and identity-related clashes. The data on corona’s spread is far from precise or reliable, given the lack of testing, lagging policies, and likely efforts at concealment on the part of certain regimes. But it is safe to assume that the number of infections is far greater than what is...
