After a decade of civil war, Assad still rules in Syria, but the country’s economy is in ruins, with no recovery on the horizon. Any effort toward reconstruction is contingent on internal stability, removal of the sanctions, and multi-level foreign aid – developments that appear highly unlikely. Syria’s economy is currently functioning on a minimal level, with a small state budget designed to maintain the regime and its mechanisms. Even though the state budget is smaller in real terms than in previous years, Syria is...
With the help of military aid from Russia and Iran, the regime of Bashar al-Assad has been able to survive and overcome the military setbacks it experienced in the early years of the civil war. Still, after a decade of warfare, the regime is unable to gain control over the entire country, which remains divided and unable to function effectively. As long as Assad controls Syria, no stabilization or recovery seems a viable possibility. Nonetheless, political and military elements in Israel continue to adhere to the idea that Assad, who...
The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
The main challenge for Israel in the northern arena is the entrenchment of the Iranian-Shiite axis and the buildup of the Iranian “war machine” in Syria and Lebanon. This entrenchment has lagged in relation to Iran’s vision and original plan, due to the Israeli “campaign between wars”; the killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani; the US “maximum pressure” policy; the economic, political, governance, and healthcare crisis in Lebanon, which also affects Hezbollah; and Iran’s...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
Southern Syria is an Iranian “backyard” and a platform for attacks on Israel; for example, it could well serve as an option for revenge following the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of the Iranian nuclear project. Iran is determined to continue the consolidation of its proxies in the area and enhance its local civilian and military influence. The current chaos in southern Syria stems from the Assad regime’s lack of effective control and the competing interests of the many actors that are active there:...
The prolonged tension in the north between the IDF and Hezbollah suggests that the two sides are actually only a few faulty or miscalculated moves away from a clash that is liable to escalate rapidly into a full-scale war, with little warning that would give the IDF time to prepare. At the same time, Israel is grappling with a Covid-19 crisis and a prolonged political crisis that has delayed essential IDF force buildup processes, particularly the budget and procurement of aircraft and battle systems, as well as the IDF’s...
The series of explosions that shook the Lebanese capital on August 4, 2020 and killed well over a hundred people, injured several thousand, and caused massive physical damage exacerbated Lebanon’s already dire straits. Presumably the disaster will have an impact on Hezbollah domestically, and it least in the short term, affect its struggle with Israel. Indeed, it is likely that the current tension between Hezbollah and Israel will ebb and be postponed to a later date, given the organization’s need to attend to internal developments...
In January 2020, the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) hosted its 13th Annual International Conference. Entitled “Strategic Assessment for Israel: A Look at the Coming Decade,” the conference included discussions, simulations, and lectures on strategic issues important to Israel’s national security. The conference was attended by decision makers, opinion leaders, and leading researchers from Israel and abroad. We invite you to read the digital version of the booklet that summarizes the conference...
Iran and Syria recently signed an agreement to expand military and technological collaboration. President Bashar al-Assad met with Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, who came to Damascus for the signing ceremony, extended his support for the agreement, and declared that it reflects the high level of strategic and multi-dimensional ties between the countries. The agreement was formulated after many years of coordination and cooperation between Syria and Iran in the war against the rebels and the opposition in...
