Supported by the US-led coalition, Iraqi security forces are on the verge of liberating the city of Mosul from the Islamic State. Like the future conquest of Raqqa in Syria, the conquest of Mosul will make a significant contribution to the international effort to defeat the Islamic State. Still, the internal and regional clashes that have plagued Iraq over the past two decades and enabled the phenomenon of the Islamic State remain strong, and the trends of division and instability will presumably continue. Despite the rifts among...
The essays in Strategic Survey for Israel 2016-2017, the latest volume in the series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies, were written and compiled during a period of upheaval and instability in Israel’s strategic environment. In many respects, this upheaval continues the trends that have marked the Middle East and much of the international arena in previous years, especially since the so-called “Arab Spring” swept through the region. Accordingly, many of the events that occurred in the region during the...
The start of the operation to liberate al-Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State in Syria – including battles over the city’s important supply route through the Manbij region in Syria’s northwest – pushes Turkey close to the point at which it will be compelled to make a strategic decision. This area is the last Islamic State-controlled area bordering Turkey, and it is likely that in the end, the Kurds will be left in control. Turkey’s next moves will have a significant impact on the future of the federal region of...
The Islamic State burst onto the Middle East scene as an entity whose conduct and very essence challenge the existing regional order. With its military conquests in Iraq and Syria, its establishment of branches elsewhere in the Middle East and beyond, its state-like governance in the areas under its control, and the cruelty it typically exhibits, the Islamic State has become the focus of regional and international interest and concern. The articles compiled in this volume examine ways of dealing with one of the most salient military,...
The strikes by the Turkish air force in Syria, which began on July 24, 2015, along with Turkey’s intention to establish a safe zone in northwestern Syria, inspired the headline “Turkey Joins the Coalition against the Islamic State,” even though Turkey has already been a member of this coalition since it was founded in 2014. In addition to the change in Turkish policy, the question arises of Turkey’s long term commitment to the coalition. Another question is whether Turkey is not already giving precedence to the struggle against the...
The Islamic State, now marking its first anniversary, is an autonomous entity controlling a considerable geographical area within the territory of Iraq and Syria. Assessing the first year of his tenure as caliph of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi can crown his gamble a success, at least in the meantime. • The terrorist attacks that were carried out last week in Tunisia, Kuwait, and France are sharp new indicators that the campaign to defeat the Islamic State can be expected to exact a heavy price in human casualties in...
Since the start of the millennium, suicide attacks have become a common mode of operation for many terrorist groups around the world, particularly Sunni Salafist jihadi organizations affiliated with global jihad. For them, suicide attacks are not only an effective tactic for causing death and destruction and sowing terror; they are also a trademark and proof of the willingness of their operatives to sacrifice themselves for the sake of God (fi sabil Allah). In 2014 there were 592 suicide attacks, a 94 percent increase over the...
It appears that President Obama’s focus on air strikes against the Islamic State (IS) is only an opening act, and by itself stands no chance of defeating the organization and arresting the tide of volunteers flocking to join its ranks. IS fighters blend into the urban environment, making it difficult for the coalition forces to identify them and seriously damage their capabilities. An aerial campaign without a ground offensive can, at most, impede the activity of IS forces. To win the campaign, it is necessary to persuade the...
Israel is not currently a top priority for Al Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra, or even for ISIS. Yet in light of the situation described above, and since these organizations regard Israel as a partner in the Western coalition, they may choose to undertake action against it at an earlier stage than originally planned stage. Despite this risk, it is best for Israel to avoid initiating premature military measures against them, as long as it is not forced into an operation in order to thwart direct action against it. Israel should leave this task...
Social media discourse regarding the coalition forces’ operations in Syria criticizes and doubts the efficacy of the war on the Islamic State, while raising possible solutions for the ongoing conflict afflicting the country. Three possible solutions are discussed, as according to participants, by combining them the coalition may prevent strategic failure in its war on the Islamic State and possibly contribute to rehabilitating the war-riddled nation. One solution refers to eradicating the Islamic State, the second involves removing...
It was only a matter of time before the debate began about who was responsible for the failed strategic assessment about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Less than a year ago, few people knew about ISIS and the risks it represented. Suddenly, within just a few months, ISIS leads the list of threats of a long line of nations, beginning with the United States, and is considered a threat so severe that exceptional steps must be taken in order to confront it. The US intelligence community will likely continue to find it...
President Obama’s September 10, 2014 address to the American nation presented the new US strategy against ISIS. Since being elected president, Obama has been criticized at home and by US allies in Europe and the Middle East for skirting responsibility in various regions of tension. The United States’ mobilization for the struggle against ISIS will thus improve its standing among the moderate pro-American countries of the Middle East, which were fear-stricken by what their leaders regarded as the American retreat and...
