The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak. On the security level, all the regimes in the Middle East are busy with the pandemic and internal affairs, and will most likely seek to avoid escalation in conflicts with Israel. At the same time, the risk of unplanned escalation (in Syria,...
Russia’s decision to break its alliance with OPEC was motivated by the desire to change the dynamics of the energy market – in which the cartel provided a “safety net” for American production while Russian corporations were a target of sanctions from Washington – and to demonstrate its ability to influence the global and the Middle East economy. Yet notwithstanding the heated rhetoric and price competition, it appears that both Russia and Saudi Arabia have an interest in resuming cooperation in the framework of an “updated cartel”...
On January 15, 2020, Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz and his Egyptian counterpart, Tarek el-Molla, announced that natural gas began to flow from Israel to Egypt. The joint announcement marks a milestone in relations between the countries, and gives further expression to the significant rise in the importance of the Mediterranean basin for Egypt’s foreign, security, and economic policy in recent years. This trend was also evident in the agenda of the World Youth Forum held in December 2019 in Sharm el-Sheikh and included discussions...
In December 2019, Saudi Arabia went public with Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, and was thus forced to share a partial source of its wealth with others. The IPO is designed to raise funding for the Vision 2030 plan, whose goals include reducing the kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues by shifting investment capital to other sectors. Yet the scale of the IPO (1.75 percent of company shares) and the sum raised are far from meeting the country’s vast needs. Iran’s attack on the company’s facilities in September 2019 has not...
The September 14 attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia – including Abqaiq, which is considered the largest of its kind in the world – is the most serious kinetic attack on oil facilities in the Gulf since the 1991 Gulf War, in terms of damage and economic significance. This incident goes far beyond the bounds of the war in Yemen, particularly if it is proven beyond any doubt that the attack was launched from Iranian territory. Under these circumstances, it is evident that even if Iran is not interested in a broad...
Among the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean – a region with a long history of rivalries and disputes – there is a growing understanding that the window of opportunity to use natural gas to improve their economic situation significantly may close due to strong competition from other regions that are more stable politically and have larger quantities of natural gas. The growing economic wisdom in the eastern Mediterranean basin will not solve the various disputes between the countries of the region, but it may reduce...
Agreement has been reached between Israel and Lebanon on advancing negotiations to resolve the dispute on demarcation of the maritime border – an issue that has become more relevant following gas discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and the interest of both countries in maximizing the economic benefit of gas production. So far, all attempts at mediation have failed, even though in the last set of talks (2011-2012), Israel agreed to a suggested compromise that provided a greater portion (with a ratio of 55:45) of the area in dispute...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
The Energy Ministers of Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority met in Cairo in mid-January 2019 to discuss the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which will serve as the umbrella for cooperation and dialogue regarding the development of gas resources in the region. While the subject of energy is the basis for the forum, there are also broader geostrategic processes that led to its establishment, and they reflect the regional states’ shared perceptions regarding the importance of...
Over the past year the global oil market has experienced significant activity, particularly in the wake of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and developments in the global economy. For the US administration, Saudi Arabia plays an important role in countering the expected shortage of Iranian oil in the market and in moderating global oil prices. However, the Kingdom requires higher prices to meet its needs, and is the de facto leader of OPEC, which strives to raise oil prices. The price of oil (WTI) in the beginning of...
The second round of United States sanctions on Iran began in early November 2018, with what President Donald Trump described as “the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed.” The current phase of sanctions is intended to upset the oil market, Iran’s primary source of revenue. Thus, the effectiveness of the sanctions will be measured largely by the scale of the revenues the Iranians collect from their oil. It also depends on the ability of the United States to bring the scale of Iranian oil exports to...
China, Russia, and other potential adversaries are increasing their efforts to corrupt the supply chains upon which the electric grid and other infrastructure sectors depend. Valuable initiatives are underway to strengthen supply chain risk management (SCRM). Yet, despite these measures, the US intelligence community warns that the growing scale and sophistication of attacks on the supply chain “are placing entire segments of our government and economy at risk.” Similar challenges confront Israel, the United Kingdom, and other US...
