Israel and the United States share the strategic goal of preventing Iran’s attainment of nuclear weapons. Both countries agree that only two forms of leverage can block Iran’s dash to the bomb: economic sanctions and a credible military threat. However, Israel and the US diverge in their assessments as to the scope and timing for effective use of these levers. Consequently, there is a huge gap between them on how to reach the goal of stopping Iran’s military nuclear program, which strategy is appropriate at this time,...
At the onset of the second round of talks in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1, the West is projecting optimism on the chances for a diplomatic solution on Iran’s nuclear program. Anyone whose aspiration is to solve this crisis peacefully hopes that the optimism is warranted, but optimism must not be allowed to turn into complacency. Indeed, close scrutiny of the situation indicates a possible alternative plan by Tehran to any abandonment of its nuclear program, based on a strategy to ensure that Iran will become a de facto...
Saudi Arabia’s refusal to become a temporarymember of the UN Security Council is the latest in an exchange of diplomaticblows, most behind the scenes, intended to signal to the United States that thekingdom is dissatisfied with US policy in the Middle East. The events of theArab Spring continue to test the relationship and the unwritten alliance betweenthese two very different countries, one a liberal democracy and one anabsolutist monarchy. The current US administration is seen byRiyadh as weak, naive, and willing to shun the use of...
The Syrian conflict haslong since descended into a protracted and bloody civil war, with the regimeand the diverse groups that comprise the opposition locked in a painfulstalemate, unable to tip the military balance of power in anyone’s favor. TheGeneva 2 negotiations, reportedly scheduled to take place in late November2013, should be seen in light of this reality, underscoring the importance ofending the conflict through a political deal. Indeed, the notion of renewingthe efforts launched in Geneva in June 2012 has gained...
While over the past weeks expectations of adeal with Iran have been running high in many quarters, the first round ofnuclear negotiations following the election of Hassan Rouhani has ended with noconcrete progress save the promise of another meeting early next month wherethe Iranian proposal will undergo further scrutiny. There were certainly somenew features that characterized these talks: they were conducted in English,the Iranian proposal was presented in a PowerPoint presentation and reportedlyincluded a serious and...
Between PresidentObama’s August 31, 2013 declaration on a retaliatory action against Syria andthe abandonment of the attack option in exchange for dismantlement of Syria’schemical weapons program, a dramatic change has taken place in the balance ofpower among the parties battling for the future of Syria. In an ironic if notabsurd development, the diplomatic agreement has granted President Assadlegitimacy, and made him a partner of sorts to the international community inimplementing the resolution on Syria’s chemical...
The long-awaited decision on the fate of US aid to Egypt was finally made on October 9, 2013. Ina carefully worded – albeit muddled – message, State Department spokeswoman JenPsaki announced the “recalibration” of US assistance to Egypt, laying out theareas in which the US would and would not continue its partnership. It seemsthat the President has been unable to ignore domestic pressure to slash the$1.55 billion aid package to Cairo given the Egyptian military leadership’s excessiveuse of violence and the lack of progress toward...
Within just a few short weeks, using a sophisticated, complex, low cost move, Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new president, succeeded in changing the rules of the Iranian nuclear game. The change consists of two interdependent aspects: an historic breakthrough to direct dialogue with the United States at the very highest echelons, and the projection of a more moderate approach that can – according to Rouhani and the United States – resolve differences and lead to an agreement on the nuclear issue within a short time. The relationship...
The final weekend of September 2013 saw the Iranian charm school at work in full force, with a campaign comprising every component of a sophisticated public diplomacy strategy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who flew to the US for talks with President Obama and a speech at the UN General Assembly, faces a tough mission: on the one hand, he must not paint himself into a corner and become the obstacle to an agreement, i.e., the party that is oblivious to the changes in the international arena and is unwavering in...
The prevailing opinion in Israel and among many American and Palestinian officials is that chances are slim that the current negotiations will lead to a real breakthrough that will promote a full settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. Yet while the assessment is reasonable, powerful considerations could in fact lead the two parties to decide to make a material change in their positions. This article examines the possibility that a fundamental and perhaps even dramatic change will occur in the familiar Palestinian...
Since the start of the Syrian uprising President Obama has projected decided unwillingness for even limited military involvement, and even though the number of Syrian fatalities has passed the 100,000 mark. The Congressional approval President Obama requested on August 31, 2013 for military involvement in Syria sets a critical precedent, and raises several legal issues as well as questions about the posture of the United States in the Middle East. Turning to Congress could highlight America’s image as a superpower seeking to...
Israel is not directly involved in the civil war in Syria or in a potential US strike. However, the threats from Syria, Iran, and Hizbollah demand that an American attack be analyzed as to what it means for Israel’s national security. This article analyzes two scenarios for an American attack and what they mean for Israel’s short term and long term interests in the Syrian context. The first is the anticipated limited attack intended as punishment of the Assad regime, and the second is a broader attack aimed at toppling the regime....
