2013 was the most violent year inIraq since 2008, a reminder that the war for Iraq is far from over. The latestoutbreak of violence in Anbar Province follows the dismantling of a Sunniprotest tent and the arrest of a Sunni member of parliament, in the course ofwhich the MP’s brothers and five bodyguards were killed. The recent outbreak ofviolence in Anbar Province is not only serious in and of itself, but is also asymptom of several illnesses of the Iraqi state, and is primarily connected to theSunnis’ anger at their ejection...
On December 17, 2013,Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi ambassador to Great Britain, published anexceptionally harsh op-ed in the New York Times about the policy of the Obamaadministration toward Iran and Syria. Until recently, signs of Saudidissatisfaction with the administration’s Middle East policy came primarilyfrom reports and news analyses. Of late, however, the Saudi government hasbecome much less cautious about its public criticism of the United States. Andwhile Riyadh has no good options as to a substitute ally in place of...
Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...
In 2013, Israel’s national security balance sheet was largely positive. In contrast, in the second half of 2014, complex and problematic processes underway in the region – including the efforts to contend with the Iranian nuclear program, the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the upheaval in the Arab world, and stature of the United States in the Middle East – can be expected to pose significant challenges to Israel’s security. The positive components of the balance sheet should make it easier for Israel to...
The evolving Middle East poses a complex set of challenges for all the local and international actors in the region. Russia, whose involvement in the area is both growing an gathering momentum, finds itself having to adjust political solutions to the emerging challenges in order to take advantage of the opportunities to shape a regional order that advances its foreign policy goals. The effects of Russian involvement in the Middle Eastern dynamic were quite prominent in 2013, mostly in the context of the Syrian civil war, and in...
In 2013, the nuclear crisis was still far from resolved, and Iran has continued to press forward with its nuclear program. Even taking into account the dramatic developments since Rouhani was elected president and the biting effect of economic sanctions that have pushed him to negotiate, our question this year nevertheless remains basically the same as last year’s question: namely, is there a real prospect for resolution of this ongoing crisis in the coming months. Continued nuclear advances bring Iran’s nuclearization ever...
The gap between the image of the United States as perceived by its traditional allies in the Middle East versus the actual US presence and activity in the region widened over the past year. Indeed, the image of a major power in the process of disengaging from the region is in contrast to the concrete US activity in the Middle East of 2013, especially diplomatic activity. Yet perhaps because of this very image – among other reasons – the US in late 2013 is confronted by a lack of trust from all its important and traditional allies in...
In late July 2013, after nearly a five-year freeze, a new chapter was opened in the Israeli-Palestinian political process. Under the sponsorship of the US administration, the latest round of talks between Israel and the PLO was launched in Washington. The two sides returned to the negotiating table skeptical regarding the chances of formulating a permanent agreement, and with the idea that should the talks fail, they would be able to place the blame on the other side. And while both sides were pessimistic as to the outcome of the...
On October 9, 2013, the White House announceda partial suspension of military aid to Egypt, and stated that a resumption ofaid was contingent on “credible progress toward an inclusive democraticallyelected civilian government through free and fair elections.” This article outlinesvarious trends in Egyptian public opinion reflected in the extensive discourseon the social networks in Egypt following the United States announcement. Thearticle questions whether this development in US-Egyptian relations constitutes,as the White House...
Since thesigning of the Geneva agreement, the P5+1 leaders, especially President Obama,have made numerous statements that challenge the very idea of a military optionagainst Iran as a realistic option. Evidenced by the conduct of the P5+1 states– even if this was not their intention – Iran is now presented as a countryincreasingly integrated into the family of nations and as an element that willhelp resolve the crisis, more than as the country responsible for the crisis inthe first place. The strategic significance of this...
From the reactions of senior Israeligovernment officials, one might think that Iran left Geneva with approval fromthe P5+1 to develop nuclear weapons, and that the agreement reached will allowIran to become a “nuclear threshold state.” However, the agreement signed inGeneva is a preliminary and partial agreement only, with limited steps requiredof each side and valid for six months, during which time the P5+1 and Iran willattempt to reach a final, comprehensive agreement. To be sure, interimagreements have a tendency to evolve into...
<div align=”justify”> Even before the ink used in signing the recent deal with Iran has dried, it became clear that the real significance of the agreement will not be determined by its intricate and complicated wording, but rather by the way in which it will be implemented in practice. Like many other past cases on the international scene, it was only to be expected that contradicting interpretations by the various parties will pop up around this agreement, too. </div>
