Following the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the world powers and Iran, Russia was quick to call on the United States to stop the NATO missile defense deployments in Europe, on the grounds that Iran will no longer pose a nuclear threat to Alliance countries. However, while the agreement could delay Iran’s ability to break out to a nuclear weapon by up to one year, the JCPOA dos not call for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. NATO can therefore claim that there is no reason to scale...
On August 5, 2015, President Barack Obama delivered an address that included criticism of Israel’s stance on the nuclear agreement with Iran. Although his specific remarks were particularly poignant, the overall message was not new. Indeed, regular statements by the President, Secretary of State Kerry, and other leading members of the administration since the agreement was signed in Vienna are intended to persuade Congress and US public opinion of the value of the nuclear agreement and why it merits United States approval. The...
Although the Vienna agreement reduces the chances of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons within the coming decade, it does not completely preclude the possibility that Iran will acquire a bomb. In fact, the agreement actually provides Iran with an alternative route for doing so, thereby increasing the chances of this occurring during the second decade of the agreement. Given this threat, the United States must develop an appropriate response. First, it must rehabilitate the credibility of a military option in the form of a surgical...
The nuclear agreement reached by the major powers with Iran is not good news for Saudi Arabia, because the agreement means that Iran, Riyadh’s main ideological and geo-strategic rival, has received international recognition as a nuclear threshold state. Saudi Arabia regards this highly significant development as evidence of Iran’s growing power. In addition to the “technical” significance of the agreement, the kingdom fears that the deal is an opening to an Iranian-American rapprochement at the expense of its own relations with the...
The agreement reached last week in Vienna between the world powers and Iran on Iran’s nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a highly problematic agreement that entails risks to Israel’s national security. It is very likely that the agreement will be implemented and its practical measures put into effect, and it appears that Israel has little ability to influence the process at this point. Thus the United States and Israel must now prepare for the problematic scenarios that may unfold in the wake of...
President Obama’s public statements after the announcement of the JCPA in Vienna on July 14, 2015 indicate willingness to enter into a serious discussion with the Israeli government over the implications of the agreement for Israel’s security. This dialogue is vital for Israel, and should not be confined to the military aspects of Iran’s nuclear program and Israel’s qualitative military edge. It is imperative that Israel realize that though the agreement has become a reality, the debate in the US and...
It is important to be clear about what issues were part of the negotiations with Iran. The country’s role in Syria and its support for different terrorist organizations in the Middle East were not at any point discussed in the negotiations, nor was it part of the agreement signed in Vienna. Similarly, progress on the nuclear file was not made conditional upon Iran changing its regional policy. Therefore, those who are expecting to see a significant change in Iranian policies are likely to be disappointed. The fear is that despite...
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement signed in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on July 14, 2015 has been heralded as an historic event by both its advocates and detractors. This collection brings together thoughts from the researchers at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on different aspects of the agreement and its strategic consequences for Israel, regional security in the Middle East, and global order....
In the run-up to the June 30, 2015 deadline for a comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, one of the key issues in contention has ostensibly been resolved. The P5+1 have reportedly agreed among themselves on a mechanism for so-called “snapback” sanctions. In principle, this snapback mechanism would enable the six powers to restore sanctions on Iran were Iran to violate its commitments under the deal. Faced with an Iranian breach of the agreement, the P5+1 face three challenges: adjudication, enforcement,...
The Obama administration’s strong desire to reach an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue, along with the administration’s perceived need to respond to the criticism leveled against it following the Lausanne understandings, have led it to sharpen the rhetoric invalidating the military option against Iran. This position by the US administration requires the advancement of a clear alternative position based on a credible military option that is capable of setting the Iranian nuclear program back many years; senior US military...
The unification of the rebel Sunni forces, along with the understandings reached between the supporting Sunni countries that hope to see the Assad regime overthrown, has effected a change in the balance of power in the Syrian civil war and has broken the deadlock that characterized the fighting over the past year. At the same time, it is still premature to conclude that the Assad regime is on the verge of collapse. Bitter and all-out fighting between the rebel Sunni forces and the Shiite axis forces can be expected. At the regional...
