It may well be the case that convergent threat assessments do facilitate some covert contact between the security echelons of Israel and some of the Arab states concerned about the shadow of Iranian hegemony, and the potential may exist for expanded ties. But the added value of more intense and/or overt ties is not self-evident, and it could reasonably be argued that the potential benefits to Israel of a real regional approach are too modest to justify the soul-searching and domestic political tensions that would inevitably ensue....
On April 27, 2015, the UN Secretary-General released a summary of the report by the Board of Inquiry appointed to investigate damage to UN facilities during Operation Protective Edge in July-August 2014. While the report states that in seven of ten incidents UN schools were damaged by IDF fire, it refrained from blaming Israel. In addition, for the first time, the report speaks of the illegitimate use of UN facilities by Palestinian militant groups. The balanced and factual nature of the report, particularly as compared with the...
Israel would do well to announce that it regards the Arab Peace Initiative as a basis for negotiations, in which principles for a regional agreement resting on a regional security regime are formulated, with the Palestinian issue being a layer or element in the broad regional system – not an issue by itself. Israel should seek to make the Arab initiative, after negotiations between the parties and necessary adjustments, into a kind of new systemic logic, which inter alia will require the Arab world to accept significant...
For the first time in over 15 years, Israel may soon form a coalition government that is composed solely of right-wing factions. This could have major implications for settlement expansion. After all, both of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s previous governments (2009–2013 and 2013–2015) included center-left parties that opposed settlement expansion outside areas that—according to past negotiations and in any realistic future peace accord—would end up as part of Israel. That is, his governments allowed population growth to expand...
The significance of this week’s visit to Moscow by PA President Mahmoud Abbas should be assessed in the context of Russia’s increasing effort to influence the Israeli-Palestinian political process and advance a settlement of the conflict. This particular effort appears well-suited to Russia’s new Middle East policy, reflected in the decision, announced on April 13, 2015, to supply the S-300 missile system to Iran. Over the years, it has appeared that Russia was willing to accept participation in the Israeli-Palestinian political...
A new Israeli government has yet to be formed and sworn in, but the Israeli and international media have already predicted a collision between Israel and the international community, including the United States. Given the political ideology shared by the potential coalition partners and their approach to the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, that prediction is not hard to make. Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to juxtapose the stability of his future government against the risks involved in pursuing the pre-election political promises...
At the start of 2015, Israel’s two major fronts – home to the two hostile players with which Israel has had military encounters in recent months – were calm. The war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2014 and the mutual attacks between Israel and Hizbollah in January 2015 seem to be at a standstill and have not been renewed. Nevertheless, a clash between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and one between Israel and Hizbollah in southern Syria seem possible in the foreseeable future. Only a change in the strategic reality in Gaza...
Operation Protective Edge ended in August 2014, leaving the Gaza Strip entrenched in a complex humanitarian reality. The international community committed itself to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and at a conference in Cairo close to the end of the military operation some $5.4 billion was promised. However, for several reasons the project has not yet commenced and the Gaza Strip is now a powder keg: hence the need for a creative solution that would bridge the respective gaps, positions, and demands, and improve the likelihood...
Three rounds of violence between Israel and Hamas since 2008 have not resulted in any change to the fundamental essence of the conflict. Israel is trapped in an asymmetrical conflict with increasingly intense violence, a reality in which Hamas manages to prove the “Paradox of Power”: Israel’s military strength becomes its weakness while Hamas’ military weakness becomes its strength. Seeing Gaza as a state-like entity and declaring war on it may help alter public opinion, allowing for definition of clear goals and less engagement in...
The complex reality of the Middle East requires Israel to work proactively and formulate a sophisticated and graduated policy, incorporating a multilateral regional dialogue, bilateral negotiations with the Palestinians, and independent steps to shape the nation’s borders – all the while ensuring the security of its citizens. Such an initiative would allow progress on each of the channels by achieving interim steps and transitional periods designed to advance a partial settlement and the reality of two nation states. Israel’s next...
On January 16, 2015, Fatou Bensouda, prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), announced her decision to open a preliminary examination of the situation in “Palestine.” The significance of this decision should not be underestimated, though at the same time this is not a surprise. Once the position was adopted that “Palestine” is a state that can join the Rome Statute, it was clear that a Palestinian request to carry out an investigation of the events would be met. Israel should respond calmly and determine the correct...
On January 8, 2015, Mahinda Rajapaksa lost his bid for reelection as Sri Lanka’s president to Maithripala Sirisena, who favors a pro-Western policy and earned the support of retired politicians and leaders of the minority parties. Interestingly, the Palestinian question was on the Sri Lankan agenda during the election campaign, and Rajapaksa has long been an active promoter of Palestinian causes. From Israel’s perspective, the new presidency in Colombo could signal the potential for some improvement in relations with Sri Lanka. One...
