The article deals with Iran after the JCPOA and shows that Iran’s international standing, which improved as a result of the JCPOA, brings with it some negative implications for Israel, given the strengthening of the radical camp. At the same time, this development may spur the pragmatic Arab states to meet the challenge of Iran’s rising stature by expanding their engagement with Israel, as they face a common enemy. The shared regional interest, which is Israel’s as well, may even heighten if the new US administration is more...
This article focuses on the agreement signed by Iran and the major powers in July 2015 concerning the Iranian nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). the article concludes that Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA in the year since it was signed is not a surprise, and should not be regarded as grounds for overconfidence. Rather, at the end of the agreement period, Iran will still have an advanced nuclear program, and when the technical restrictions stated in the agreement are removed, the time required for Iran...
In late November 2016, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces announced to commanders of the Iranian fleet that Iran may establish naval bases in the future far from its shores, on islands or as floating bases, and that one day it may be possible to have bases on the shores of Yemen or Syria. These remarks reflect Iran’s fundamental hegemonic aspirations in the Middle East and, in some respects, beyond. In concrete terms, Iran is translating its hegemonic aspirations into efforts to establish its centrality as a regional...
Although Iran’s presidential elections are only expected to take place in half a year, various figures are already speaking out. The historical record shows that after the consolidation of the Islamic Republic’s political system (in the early 1980s), each incumbent president has continued for a second term, even if his powers of maneuver ebbed. It is therefore likely that as part of maintaining regime stability, Rouhani has a good chance of reelection. In the international arena as well, there are many who presume that Rouhani...
The most important reservation regarding the JCPOA is the high probability that after ten years, Iran will proceed with the production of highly enriched uranium, and thus will have the capability to produce nuclear weapons almost at will, with a breakout time reduced to two months, if not less. Thus, the JCPOA is a setback for Iran, albeit probably temporary. The deferment of the issue for ten years or less is minor in the historical timescale. Iran knows how to be patient. There should be little doubt that unless something dramatic...
On August 16, 2016, the governments of Russia and Iran announced that Russia deployed fighter jets in western Iran, southwest of Tehran, and that the planes have already executed sorties against military targets in Syria. Operationally, flying the Russian planes out of Iran does not in and of itself have much effect on Israel. Either way, Russia is attacking jihadist organizations in Syria – a shared Israeli interest – and it does not much matter to Israel if the planes take off from Russia, Syria, or Iran. Planes leaving Iran to...
At first the attempted coup in Turkey aroused much concern in Iran, and it is therefore no coincidence that Tehran was the first to express support for Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a few hours after the events began. The attempted coup in Turkey confronted Iran with the alarming prospect of a violent conflict in a large, important neighboring country; a possible downfall of an Islamic regime, even a Sunni one, was regarded by Tehran as a dangerous precedent. The Iranian regime views the possibility of an internal uprising...
It is over one year since the nuclear agreement between the world powers and Iran was signed, and an analysis of Iran’s behavior over the past year strengthens the INSS assessments that in the short term the agreement poses only moderate risks. It is important to note what did not happen over the past year, particularly the extreme scenarios that did not materialize, despite the dire forecasts sounded during the political debate regarding the agreement. During the second decade of the JCPOA, however, Iran will be presented with an...
The Middle East is being reshaped by an extended process that began over five years ago, and its end-point is currently impossible to predict. Still, it can be assumed that the parties involved with the conflicts in the region in general, and in Syria in particular, seek resolutions through an attempt to reshape the power relations between them and the state structures in the area. Against this background, Israel has a fundamental interest in ensuring that Iran and Hezbollah will not be the forces that are strengthened within the...
An escalating conflict between Iran and the United States concerning Iranian allegations that the United States is not fulfilling its commitments under the nuclear agreement has made headlines in recent weeks. Tehran has accused the US administration of fomenting an anti-Iran atmosphere, which leads to reluctance on the part of banks and international companies to conduct business with Iran. This issue became ready political material in Iran for the opponents of the nuclear agreement and the opponents of President Rouhani, and the...
The United States and Israel have conflicting interests on how to handle the region’s current challenges, and these differences are eroding the special relationship that has historically prevailed between the two countries. This essay proposes a joint regional strategy for the two countries resting on several anchors, including: mutual consideration by Israel and the United States of each other’s regional interests; fortification of the existing peace agreements between Israel and its neighbors – which are also a basis for promoting...
Iran’s Conservative Pragmatismby Avner Golov · March 14, 2016For many, the Iranian elections on February 26, 2016 were a first test for the Iranian public’s reaction to the nuclear deal signed in July 2015. For those who anticipated a dramatic result, either in favor or against the regime, the elections tempered these notions. The main conclusion to draw from the formal results is that Iran’s domestic political dynamic will remain as it was: a conservative dominancy challenged by pockets of pragmatist...
