While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention. They are frustrated that their struggle is cast by many as terrorism, while the struggle in Ukraine is treated as a just war for freedom. The Palestinians have accordingly neither expressed any public empathy for the Ukrainians nor demonstrated any solidarity with...
The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. The United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine have revealed intelligence information and assessments about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion. On the political level, the revelations contributed to shape a narrative that clearly marked Putin as an aggressor and Ukraine as a victim, and thus contributed to the consolidation of a strong and unified front against Russia. On the strategic level, the early...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin, who has elevated the nuclear alert of his forces, immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. Will the nuclear taboo be broken for the first time in 77 years, or will the balance of nuclear deterrence be maintained? The real risk involves the tactical weapons, and even there, the likelihood of use is low, despite fears that the Putin’s calculation of profits and losses will lead him to escalate the campaign.
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. It is too early to outline scenarios for ending the campaign and certainly to sum up the broader significance of the crisis for the US and the great power competition. However, in the coming months the administration intends to act more forcefully to strengthen the image of President Biden as a leader who...
Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. Even though most Arab countries still see their relations with the United States as a central element of their security, they are concerned about the reduced US attention toward the Middle East in general and their security problems in particular, and are now trying to establish a new...
The sanctions led by the US and the EU include asset freezing of designated Russian persons and entities. Analysis of reported Russian investments abroad (USD 382 billion in 2020) suggests that the vast majority of Russian investments are in sanctioning countries, and particularly in Europe. Hence, the effectiveness of the asset-freezing depends on the efficacy of the authorities and financial sector, particularly in Europe. However, there are indications of underreporting of Russian investments worth about USD 90 billion to Western...
The human tragedy in Ukraine is painful, and there is still no mechanism for ending the war. The United States and NATO have defined an objective – imposing a heavy cost on Russia in order to deter Putin from future aggression, while at the same time managing the conflict wisely in order to stop its sliding into a third world war. In view of the escalation in fighting, the US and its allies must examine the consequences of a continued war: mounting civilian casualties, the danger of expansion beyond Ukrainian borders, and the...
Questions of the “what would have happened if” are irrelevant to historical research, unless they add a current perspective. Such a perspective exists insofar as Ukraine is not part of NATO or the European Union, unlike other European countries that were part of the Soviet bloc and were accepted into these organizations following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And now, when parts of Ukraine have been captured by Russia, and two regions have even been recognized by Russia as independent, this question arises anew. The rigid...
The fighting in Ukraine invites some important conclusions regarding the use of force in the world taking shape before our eyes. This is the first clash between two militaries for a long time, and the Ukrainian army is not operating according to the concept of “conventional warfare,” but using an upgraded version of the war of the weak. On the other side, Vladimir Putin is caught in a trap, because although Russia is actually fighting in Ukraine, its real purpose is to create a new balance with the West, which is not part of the...
There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the unification of Germany, and the (apparent) disappearance of the Soviet threat created a sense of the end of history and the victory of the liberal West. Enjoyment of the “fruits of peace” became the motto of German policy,...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine constitutes a blatant violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits states from using force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another state. It also amounts to a crime of aggression. The action has led to UN resolutions against Russia and the establishment of a commission of inquiry, as well as the rapid commencement of an investigation by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court into suspected war crimes. In addition, proceedings against Russia...
Qatar’s regional and international standing has greatly improved of late. This development, a result of the country’s reconciliation agreement with a number of its Gulf neighbors and its closer ties with the United States, could affect Israel’s interests. Qatar is likely to exploit the war in Ukraine and the accompanying global energy crisis to raise its international status, especially its relations with the United States, and is already attempting to seize the opportunity to convince the US to supply it with F-35...
