Following the recent elections in the United States, President-elect Joe Biden declared the incoming administration’s intention to return to the nuclear deal and lift the sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration if Tehran returns to full compliance with its commitments as part of the agreement. However, senior administration officials appear willing to discuss the matter in consultation with US allies in the Middle East, and in particular with Israel. In the dialogue that is expected to take place with the...
The prevailing assumption in the Israeli and international media, and among governments around the world, is that the assassination of the head of Iran’s military nuclear project, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was carried out by Israel. If so, the costs and benefits of the assassination from Israel’s vantage point should be examined and weighed. To this end, certain questions must be answered: What was the strategic purpose of this action, and what is the likelihood of its ultimate success? In light of this goal, was the timing of the action...
The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizada invites six questions: Who is responsible for the act? What was the objective? Why now? What are the consequences of the assassination? How will Iran respond? What is the recommended policy for Israel in light of this development? This article contends that barring narrow political considerations, whoever ordered Fakhrizadeh’s assassination apparently tried to achieve three strategic objectives: damage Iran’s nuclear program; obstruct the Biden administration’s return to the...
Iran appears satisfied with the results of the United States presidential elections, although more so by the defeat of Donald Trump than by the victory of Joe Biden. However, Tehran is aware that the tensions between the United States and its European partners, inter alia over the issue of the nuclear agreement – tensions that played in Iran’s favor – may dissipate. Against this background, with the heated debate within the Iranian political system regarding a return to negotiations with the US on the JCPOA, a number of key messages...
Former Vice President Joe Biden has been elected President of the United States. While millions of votes were still being counted, President Trump declared victory and stated that he would appeal to the Supreme Court to stop the counting process. From the outset, Biden will have to immediately devote himself to domestic issues, after four years in which racial tensions reached their worst point in decades and the spread of the coronavirus wreaked enormous damage on public health and the economy. Israel’s analysis of the incoming...
The embargo imposed by the UN Security Council on the sale of weapons to Iran will expire on October 18, 2020. At that time, Iran will be permitted to purchase the weapon systems that it sought unsuccessfully to obtain in the past. Iran will likely prefer to buy weapons mainly from Russia, which since the 1990s has been its principal arms supplier, and its shopping list will probably include the Sukhoi S-30 aircraft and the S-400 advanced air defense systems. However, over the last two decades, even before the embargo was imposed,...
As the US presidential election nears, Iranian interest has risen as to the possible ramifications for the future of the nuclear deal. Recently there have been mounting Iranian calls to lower expectations, contending that there is no substantive difference in the Democratic and Republican positions on Iran, and that the developments since the United States withdrew from the deal might challenge its potential renewal. While these voices can be explained in part as a tactical step designed to improve Tehran’s bargaining position...
The rejection by the Security Council of a US draft resolution to extend the embargo on arms sales to Iran, scheduled to expire on October 18, 2020, is evidence of the administration’s isolation, which is largely a result of the displeasure with its unilateral steps and the deep rift with its traditional allies in Europe. The administration now intends to demand that the Council invoke a clause for a snapback of all sanctions and curbs that were previously imposed on Iran and lifted after the nuclear agreement was reached....
A facility for the extraction of yellowcake from uranium ore has been detected in Saudi Arabia. The facility, which has been in place for some time, was constructed in cooperation with two Chinese companies. The report comes on top of a number of discoveries indicative of an effort by Saudi Arabia, apparently in the early stages, to test elements of the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as closer cooperation between Saudi Arabia and China. The nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA) did not lessen Saudi Arabia’s motivation to acquire...
The explosion on July 2, 2020 at the site for assembling advanced centrifuges in the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz dealt a blow to Iran’s plans to progress to more advanced stages in its nuclear project – although it will not prevent Iran’s continued accumulation of enriched uranium, which in principle shortens the Iranian timetable for obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Iranian dilemma is whether to exercise restraint or to respond, and if it chooses to respond, how. Thus far, Israel has not been accused directly....
Although the presidential elections in Iran are expected only a year from now, the election campaign, which contains the potential for significant changes in Iran’s internal and foreign policies, is already attracting much attention both in Iran and in the West. Both main political camps in Iran, the pragmatist-reformists and the conservative-hardliners, have begun preparing for the presidential elections. President Hassan Rouhani will be finishing his term during one of the most challenging periods since the Islamic Revolution,...
Israel’s new government will have to review the validity of many ideas within the Israeli consensus that have guided foreign policy over the past two decades. Key questions concern the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; relations between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East, particularly in the area of energy and in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; relations with the United States, including the implications of the competition between China and the US; relations with the European Union; and relations with...
