Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel over the past month in Iraq, and in recent days in Syria and Lebanon, are part of the “campaign between wars” (CBW) that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional campaign of proxy warfare. These incidents mark a deviation from the routine and from the principles that had guided the campaign in recent years. The recent sequence of events has three salient characteristics: the theaters of operations, the operational tempo and their public profile. These events have possible...
As expected, the renewal of economic sanctions against Iran one year ago led to a worsening of an already bad economic situation in Iran. A number of economic indexes attest to the severity of the economic crisis, mainly the budget deficit stemming from the unprecedented drop in the export of Iranian oil, high inflation, and negative economic growth. In contrast, a number of indexes may also suggest that the Iranian economy is gradually acclimating to the sanctions regime. The deepening economic crisis has heightened the sense of...
There are growing signs that Israel has expanded its campaign against Iran’s efforts to consolidate its power in the region, including in attacks on infrastructures in Iraq that are linked to Iran. An overall cost-benefit analysis should prompt Israel to consider the potential implications of expanding the campaign, among them an early withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, which would leave Israel alone in the campaign against Iran’s entrenchment in the region. The Iranian attempt to carry out weaponized drone attacks...
Recent months have seen increasing signs that the head of Iran’s judiciary, Ebrahim Raisi, has emerged as the leading candidate to succeed Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader. Since his appointment as head of the judiciary in March 2019, there have been increasing efforts on the part of Raisi, a conservative cleric, apparently backed by the Supreme Leader, to advance changes in the legal system, improve his public image, and increase his media exposure, particularly in view of his loss in the most recent presidential elections in May...
The recent escalation in the confrontation between the United States and Iran demonstrates the determination of both sides not to concede any ground, on the understanding that doing so would undercut their ability to bargain in any future negotiations. In parallel to the mutual muscle-flexing there are mediation efforts underway, currently led by French President Macron, in an effort to formulate the conditions and nature of a dialogue. Looking ahead, the two likeliest scenarios remain as they were: protracted confrontation between...
The Iranian government continues to develop and field an increasingly sophisticated range of cyber capabilities to support their strategic interests and to enable a variety of computer-based financial crime. These capabilities have directly and adversely impacted Israel, which has been the target of major cyberattacks either affiliated or directly orchestrated by the political leadership in Tehran. To assess this strategic threat, this article outlines the evolving objectives and characteristics of Iran’s cyber activity targeting...
The international media reported that the United States conducted a cyberattack on command and control computers belonging to Iran’s air defense and surface-to-surface missile apparatuses. The working premise of this essay is that these reports are factually correct. The United States decision not to retaliate against Iran for the downing of the UAV with a kinetic attack, and its choice instead of a standalone cyberattack, i.e., absent synergy with complementary kinetic steps, further entrenches the US posturing as an actor deterred...
One facet of the recent American-Iranian escalation is the cyber realm. Moving the conflict into cyberspace enables one side to commit retaliatory acts while reducing the impact that requires the other side to respond and escalate: this is how the cyberattack by the United States in response to Iran’s downing of the American drone should be understood. Yet considering the rapid development of knowledge and technology in all that is related to cyberspace, integration of the cyber dimension into the sphere of international conflicts...
The meeting in Jerusalem in late June between the national security advisers of the United States, Washington, and Israel was a preliminary stage in renewing cooperation between Washington and Moscow on a range of issues. In the Syrian context, it was a bid to pressure Moscow to reduce aid and support for Iran in exchange for an easing of the Western sanctions imposed on Russia. For its part, Russia is working to brand itself as a mediator between the United States and Iran on issues ranging from the nuclear file to regional...
In recent months, the Iranian authorities have stepped up their enforcement of the Islamic dress code. Although Islamic enforcement is considered routine in Iran, especially as the summer season approaches, the heightened efforts can also be attributed to the intensified challenges facing the Iranian regime at home and abroad. Increased enforcement reflects the conservative establishment’s recognition of a less stringent approach to the issue among civilians, and the fear that fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution...
The dispute between the United States and Iran is taking place on two levels: The American administration is adhering to its policy of placing “maximum pressure” on the Iranian regime, while Iran is adopting a new policy in place of the “tolerance” that it had demonstrated thus far, in order to show the United States, and especially the other countries that signed the Nuclear Agreement—particularly the European partners—the costs they are liable to pay for continuing the sanctions. At the same time, in an attempt to prevent a...
The rescue of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by the pro-Assad coalition, comprising Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, led to the victory of the regime over the rebels; the coalition’s achievements stem primarily from the effective cooperation between Iran and Russia since 2015 in fighting the rebels. Now, with the battles over, despite shared interests in consolidating the Assad regime, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. Yet despite the disagreements, this it is not a...
