The threat of cyber terrorism has created the image of a terrorist in a remote, isolated location inflicting major damage by penetrating security or economic systems via cyberspace, and this image has been made especially popular through the activity of the Syrian Electronic Army (SEA). With hackers targeting popular websites, SEA has brought the image to the fore of global threat perceptions. However, SEA has not developed to the point where it can cause irreversible damage. It lacks the required high quality intelligence for cyber...
The announcement by al-Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri that he is severing ties with the group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) aroused much interest in the media and surprised many people. However, both friction between al-Qaeda Central and its global jihad affiliates and conflicts among the group’s supporters is not unusual. Moreover, the recent formal public declaration by Zawahiri did not come from nowhere; it was another stage in the growing tension between him and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the head of ISIS.
Thereis currently much international activity in three particular cities: Sochi,where the winter Olympic Games are soon to begin; Kiev, the Ukrainian capital,plagued by anti-government protests; and Geneva (Montreux), the site of theinternational conference underway on the crisis in Syria. Ostensibly the threecities have little in common – the timing of the events is completelycoincidental – but in fact they share certain elements that are important toRussia’s interests. A closer look reveals how the three are linked at the levelof...
On January 22, 2014representatives of the international community once again reconvened inSwitzerland in an attempt to broker a negotiated agreement to end the bloodySyrian civil war. Since the last round of international talks in June 2012(“Geneva 1”), the situation in Syria has deteriorated drastically. While thehumanitarian situation has gotten worse, none of the warring parties is substantially closer today to a military victory than at the time of the Geneva 1talks: on the contrary, despite a number of tactical victories...
Betweenthe start of suicide bombings in the recent past, carried out by Hizbollah inLebanon in the early 1980s, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, some200 suicide attacks took place around the world. A dramatic increase in suicideterrorism around the world began in early 2000, and overall some 3,500 suicideattacks have taken place over the last three decades. The reverberations of theSeptember 11 attacks led to a significant increase in the role played byterrorist organizations identified with al-Qaeda and global...
2013 was the most violent year inIraq since 2008, a reminder that the war for Iraq is far from over. The latestoutbreak of violence in Anbar Province follows the dismantling of a Sunniprotest tent and the arrest of a Sunni member of parliament, in the course ofwhich the MP’s brothers and five bodyguards were killed. The recent outbreak ofviolence in Anbar Province is not only serious in and of itself, but is also asymptom of several illnesses of the Iraqi state, and is primarily connected to theSunnis’ anger at their ejection...
Focus in the analytical essays compiled here is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and opportunities that await Israel in 2014. In 2013 the Middle East continued to grapplewith several risk-laden issues and processes that began in previous years, includingthe socio-political unrest in many Arab states and the increased power ofradical Islamic elements in lawless areas near Israel’s borders; the ongoingcivil war in Syria; the unresolved Iranian nuclear issue; and the wide gaps betweenIsrael and the...
In 2013, Israel’s national security balance sheet was largely positive. In contrast, in the second half of 2014, complex and problematic processes underway in the region – including the efforts to contend with the Iranian nuclear program, the effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the upheaval in the Arab world, and stature of the United States in the Middle East – can be expected to pose significant challenges to Israel’s security. The positive components of the balance sheet should make it easier for Israel to...
The evolving Middle East poses a complex set of challenges for all the local and international actors in the region. Russia, whose involvement in the area is both growing an gathering momentum, finds itself having to adjust political solutions to the emerging challenges in order to take advantage of the opportunities to shape a regional order that advances its foreign policy goals. The effects of Russian involvement in the Middle Eastern dynamic were quite prominent in 2013, mostly in the context of the Syrian civil war, and in...
The only episode in 2013 that came close to being an acute threat to the Israeli civilian front involved the tension between Washington and Damascus concerning the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Today, even if the fate of the chemical arsenal in Syria remains unclear, the episode highlighted one important lesson about the complexity and volatility of the risks facing the Israeli home front: in the conflict ridden and frequently changing Middle East, the home front can suddenly find itself facing an unanticipated conflagration in...
This article presents a balance of Israel’s strategic security situation, and suggests that the current balance is generally positive. It maps the security challenges and considers how Israel can best deal with the challenges before it, while arresting negative trends and taking advantage of opportunities to stabilize and enhance the positive aspects of the balance. The analysis features a multidisciplinary approach, examining the interface between the various challenges through an integrated look at political, diplomatic, social,...
The popular uprising that broke out in Syria in March 2011 evolved into a civil war with no end in sight. Neither the forces of Bashar al-Assad nor the various rebel factions are capable of defeating the other. Each side enjoys advantages while suffering from disadvantages that reflect the unique sectarian composition of Syrian society. Each is affected by the extent of external aid it has received, as well as by the structure of the regime that has been institutionalized over the years. Against this background, an already protracted...
