Iran and the United States reported that the first round of indirect talks between them, aimed at finding a formula for a return to the nuclear agreement, was serious and constructive, although there is no assurance that the process will succeed. Despite the common interest of both sides to return to the agreement, the road ahead is fraught with obstacles and it is possible that the talks will collapse. Beyond the existing disagreements, the attack on the Natanz website, which Iran blames on Israel, may undermine the Vienna talks. In...
The leaders of the major members of the European Union could sigh with relief upon hearing President Biden’s first statements on foreign policy. His remarks indicate that the United States is resuming its central role in the international arena, with a renewed emphasis on diplomacy, multilateralism, universal human rights, and the rule of law. Cooperation between the United States and the European Union, which waned during Trump’s term in office – thereby eroding their ability to deal with shared challenges – is now...
China has renewed its proposal to convene an international meeting of all parties to the nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA), including the United States, with the goal of discussing the US return to the agreement. On the eve of the first telephone conversation between the US and Chinese Presidents (February 11, 2021), the special US Envoy for Iran issue and the Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister considered ways to coordinate moves on the JCPOA. Active mediation on the Iranian nuclear issue may be part of a broader Chinese policy aimed at...
With the possibility of the United States and Iran resuming negotiations on a return to the nuclear agreement, a recent article by the Iranian Foreign Minister in a leading US journal detailing Tehran’s positions is particularly noteworthy. The main gaps between the parties concern who takes the first step: while the administration wants Iran to act first, the Iranians expect the United States to lift the sanctions and only then will Iran fulfill its obligations under the agreement. The Iranians also reject a US demand to link...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The past year was among the hardest the Islamic Republic has known. Beginning with the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani and the downing of the Ukrainian airplane and the ensuing protests, it was marked by an increasingly severe economic situation, the COVID-19 pandemic, the normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states; and the killing of the head of the military nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Biden’s election offers new hope of removing the sanctions and returning to the nuclear deal. Iran’s opening...
On January 4, 2021, Iran announced that it had begun enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent at a well-protected facility in Fordow. This level of enrichment departs completely from Iran’s commitment stipulated in the agreement reached with the world powers in 2015 (JCPOA). There are two main possible reasons for this Iranian announcement. One, it is intended as a provocation, designed to exert pressure on the world powers to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran, which were renewed by the United States. Two, Iran intends to...
Senior members of the incoming US administration have stressed that they intend to advance a return by the United States to the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as a lifting of sanctions, if Iran returns to its obligations under the agreement. Iran, for its part, clarifies that there is no room for negotiation on an improved agreement, and it has already raised the level of uranium enrichment at Fordow to 20 percent, as a means of putting pressure on Biden. It appears that Israel has for the time being chosen to publicly challenge the...
Once President-elect Biden enters the White House, Israel will have to work with a president whose policy on Iran is expected to differ from that of the Trump administration. Both the incoming and outgoing administrations have made an identical fundamental commitment: to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Beyond this, however, they disagree about how to achieve the goal, and how to deal with the Iranian missile program and other negative elements of Iranian conduct in the region, which were not addressed in the JCPOA. For...
After years of a weakening transatlantic alliance, exacerbated by President Trump’s four years in office, strategic cooperation between the European Union and the United States is likely to resume. This cooperation is necessary to tackle the coronavirus crisis and its consequences, as well as the geopolitical and technological changes that have occurred over the last two decades. The renewed dialogue between the two sides of the Atlantic will have implications for several other actors in the international arena, primarily...
