After three decades of United States dominance as the only global superpower, the third decade of the 21st century begins amidst strategic competition in the international arena on multiple levels. Countries, organizations, and international corporations are part of this competition, which is led by the world powers: the United States, which is still the strongest in the world in terms of resources and capabilities; China, which uses its economic power as leverage for political influence and increased military power, even though its...
The tension between Iran and the United States, which increased following the targeted killing of Qasem Soleimani and the subsequent Iranian response, has reached a level of intensity that has not been seen in years. The conduct of both leaderships following the events attests to the fact that they have no interest in an all-encompassing confrontation with one another. Still, Iran will likely resume an asymmetrical struggle aimed at removing the US presence from the Middle East, and especially from Iraq. Therefore, even if thus far...
The Power Gap
As it enters a new decade, the State of Israel possesses impressive military, political, technological, and economic power. However, Israel is hard-pressed to translate these advantages into strategic influence and achieve its key national security objectives: mitigating threats, advancing peace, building alliances, and dictating the terms for the satisfactory conclusion of conflicts. This reality results from the limited benefit that military action can provide Israel against its main adversaries, as well as Israel’s...
On January 15, 2020, the United States and China signed an interim agreement as a first phase toward a comprehensive deal that will end the trade war between the two countries. However, the actual achievement is questionable, since the key components of the agreement focus on at least partial elimination of the tariffs imposed during the trade war, while the American demand that China reduce its subsidies to state-owned Chinese enterprises – which give Chinese companies advantages over other companies – was left out of the agreement....
In May 2019, Iran indicated that it would begin to violate the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This would take the form of a series of incremental and escalatory steps, to be announced every 60 days, in response to the withdrawal of the Trump administration from the nuclear deal a year earlier and the subsequent imposition of harsh sanctions. The fourth step, taken in November 2019, is the most serious so far: Iran announced that it would begin enriching uranium at the heavily fortified underground enrichment...
The announcement by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that “the establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent with international law” is in line with Israel’s official position, and its inherent message – that preoccupation with the question of the legality of the settlements narrows Palestinian flexibility and discourages the achievement of a negotiated resolution to the conflict – is correct. However, the announcement’s practical value is minor, and there...
After lengthy groundwork by the National Security Council, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Economic Council, Israel’s political-security cabinet decided to establish an advisory committee to examine national security issues as part of the approval process for foreign investments. The decision comes as a result of American pressure and Israel’s fears of damage to the strategic relations with the United States, after Washington made it clear that it expects Israel to change its stance on Chinese activity in the state. The...
Since the 1980s, we have witnessed rapid changes in a world characterized by a neo-liberal economy, increased human migration, and information technologies developing at an unprecedented pace. These transformations are putting stress on modern state structures and have allowed non-state players to enter the heart of global consciousness. These new entities pose new security challenges, including ethnic conflicts, civil wars, the use of robotics-based autonomous weapons, and terrorist attacks both in the physical sphere and...
Operation Peace Spring, Turkey’s third operation in northern Syria since 2016, constitutes its most ambitious action in Syria yet. The developments leading up to the offensive and the outcomes of the operation have regional and international ramifications well beyond this specific campaign – particularly for the conduct of the various actors in light of President Donald Trump’s desire to end US involvement in conflicts in the region. The offensive was not in itself surprising given the numerous Turkish threats to this...
The Iranian regime is waging a campaign on the diplomatic, economic, and nuclear fronts as it confronts the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy. The Iranian policy, dubbed “maximum resistance” by the regime, centers on the refusal to meet Trump and resume negotiations before the sanctions imposed on Tehran by Washington are lifted. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif is conducting a series of political visits to many countries in defiance of the sanctions imposed on him by Washington. In...
The relationship between Israel and the American Jewish community has been central to the ability of both communities to develop and flourish over the past 70 years; it is likewise vital to the national security of Israel and the entire Jewish people. The current generation has witnessed increasing trends of distance and alienation between Israel and American Jewry, a weakened connection and sense of mutual belonging, and the decline of responsibility and involvement between the two communities. These join the challenges concerning...
Strikes reportedly carried out by Israel over the past month in Iraq, and in recent days in Syria and Lebanon, are part of the “campaign between wars” (CBW) that Israel has waged against Iran’s regional campaign of proxy warfare. These incidents mark a deviation from the routine and from the principles that had guided the campaign in recent years. The recent sequence of events has three salient characteristics: the theaters of operations, the operational tempo and their public profile. These events have possible...
