On October 3, 2016, the US State Department announced the suspension of bilateral talks with Moscow seeking a ceasefire in Syria, and cancellation of a Joint Implementation Center for action against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Statements by the American administration contain explanations for the failure of US political efforts, and point at the blatant gaps between the current US approach and Russia’s strategic culture and approach to the use of force. The cumulative result is that at all times Russia and the Assad regime have a...
Despite Syria’s repeated violations of Security Council Resolution 2118, including use of chemical weapons, and the public and official recognition of these violations, the Obama administration continues to avoid any enforcement or any direct action against the Assad regime, out of policy considerations and the desire to limit US military involvement in the Syrian civil war. This ongoing policy, however, has negative implications for the United States and its ability to wield influence in Syria;; its status vis-à-vis other powers,...
Although the Syrian regime welcomed the Russian-American ceasefire agreement, President Assad was quick to proclaim his determination to reestablish Syrian state control over all parts of the country that are currently in the hands of “terrorists.” He also demonstrated no willingness to move ahead with regime reform. Yet alongside the clear difficulties threatening the success of the ceasefire agreement, there are significant factors that may enable it. The major issue that should trouble Israel in light of the ceasefire agreement is...
The agreement between Russia and the United States on a ceasefire in Syria is a compromise between rival powers. The respective political objectives of the two sides led the parties to the negotiating table, but likewise made it difficult for them to conclude an agreement. The divergent goals may also make it difficult to implement the agreement. Moreover, although the agreement serves the interests of the United States and Russia, it still lacks a guarantee that the fighting will stop, and it does not have a formula for the full...
While even before the crisis, Syria was a poor economy, in the last five years GDP per capita fell to less than a third of its pre-war level. Approximately 11 percent of the population in Syria were killed or injured in the course of the war. In addition, late 2015 estimates point to about 3.1 million refugees, 1.2 million migrants, and 6.4 million displaced persons within Syria. Even with foreign aid, it would take the Syrian economy decades to recover to its previous level: the IMF estimates 20 years of reconstruction. Overall,...
The civil war underway in Syria since March 2011 has changed the Syrian nation beyond recognition, and the shockwaves caused by the war have made a very strong impact, both in the Middle East and beyond. Following four decades of relative stability, Syria has become an arena marked by internal, regional, and international conflict. The weakening of the central government in Damascus, along with the transformation of Syria into a battlefield featuring many actors with different and often conflicting interests, poses new challenges for...
The current reality in Syria is gradually prompting a change in US policy, out of an understanding that the lines between the many Sunni actors operating in the war-torn state are vague and elusive. There may now be a turning point in the Obama administration’s assessment of the situation, as it realizes that there are no truly moderate forces in Syria that can serve as an alternative to the Assad regime, and that at the end of the day, all of the Sunni groups, whether Salafist groups or others, will cooperate with al-Qaeda or...
The threat posed by the Islamic State to many nations has led to the formation of an international coalition whose forces have been bombing Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria. Some of the bombings in Syria have targeted the strongholds of the Khorasan group. Very little is known about this group. It appears to be an international terrorist cell that settled in Syria under the cover of the country’s chaos in order to plan attacks against the West and train its members to carry them out. In September 2014, the United States...
The start of the operation to liberate al-Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State in Syria – including battles over the city’s important supply route through the Manbij region in Syria’s northwest – pushes Turkey close to the point at which it will be compelled to make a strategic decision. This area is the last Islamic State-controlled area bordering Turkey, and it is likely that in the end, the Kurds will be left in control. Turkey’s next moves will have a significant impact on the future of the federal region of...
The Middle East is being reshaped by an extended process that began over five years ago, and its end-point is currently impossible to predict. Still, it can be assumed that the parties involved with the conflicts in the region in general, and in Syria in particular, seek resolutions through an attempt to reshape the power relations between them and the state structures in the area. Against this background, Israel has a fundamental interest in ensuring that Iran and Hezbollah will not be the forces that are strengthened within the...
Exactly one hundred years ago, two diplomats, one British and one French, concluded the Sykes-Picot agreement, which divided the Middle East into two zones of influence. The agreement became one of the cornerstones of the region, and gave the core area of the Middle East the shape it has assumed since the end of World War I. However, the political order founded a century ago by what were then British and French superpowers, including the regimes created and the borders delineated, is currently under serious challenge. The article...
While violations of the ceasefire by Assad’s forces, the Syrian army’s reconquest of Palmyra, and the possible plans to retake a-Raqqa, the Syrian capital of the Islamic State, place the rebels in an inferior position, the rebels, with Western support, can try to turn the situation around. The United States now has the opportunity to form an opposition force, prepare it, and help it seize a-Raqqa before it is attacked by the pro-Assad coalition (the Syrian army, Russian air support, and Hezbollah and Iranian troops). Instead of...
