The leaders of the major members of the European Union could sigh with relief upon hearing President Biden’s first statements on foreign policy. His remarks indicate that the United States is resuming its central role in the international arena, with a renewed emphasis on diplomacy, multilateralism, universal human rights, and the rule of law. Cooperation between the United States and the European Union, which waned during Trump’s term in office – thereby eroding their ability to deal with shared challenges – is now...
China has renewed its proposal to convene an international meeting of all parties to the nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA), including the United States, with the goal of discussing the US return to the agreement. On the eve of the first telephone conversation between the US and Chinese Presidents (February 11, 2021), the special US Envoy for Iran issue and the Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister considered ways to coordinate moves on the JCPOA. Active mediation on the Iranian nuclear issue may be part of a broader Chinese policy aimed at...
Relations between Iran and the United States reached a low point at the end of the Trump administration. Harsh sanctions, the elimination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, billion-dollar arms sales to the Gulf states, and normalization agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were all encouraged by Washington in the recent past.
The year 2021 began with a change of administration in the US and it will also see a change of president in Iran. The possibility of a return to the nuclear agreement, the...
The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
With the possibility of the United States and Iran resuming negotiations on a return to the nuclear agreement, a recent article by the Iranian Foreign Minister in a leading US journal detailing Tehran’s positions is particularly noteworthy. The main gaps between the parties concern who takes the first step: while the administration wants Iran to act first, the Iranians expect the United States to lift the sanctions and only then will Iran fulfill its obligations under the agreement. The Iranians also reject a US demand to link...
Israel’s enemies are aware of its strength, preoccupied with their own domestic problems, and eager to avoid escalation. However, war in 2021 is possible – in the northern arena and Gaza – following a “dynamic of escalation.” In a war, the IDF would employ lethal offensive capabilities on the ground, in the air, at sea, and in the cyber realm, and inflict considerable damage on its enemies. But in such a war, Israel would likely face massive surface-to-surface missile and rocket fire on the home front, and attacks...
The main challenge for Israel in the northern arena is the entrenchment of the Iranian-Shiite axis and the buildup of the Iranian “war machine” in Syria and Lebanon. This entrenchment has lagged in relation to Iran’s vision and original plan, due to the Israeli “campaign between wars”; the killing of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani; the US “maximum pressure” policy; the economic, political, governance, and healthcare crisis in Lebanon, which also affects Hezbollah; and Iran’s...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
The past year was among the hardest the Islamic Republic has known. Beginning with the killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani and the downing of the Ukrainian airplane and the ensuing protests, it was marked by an increasingly severe economic situation, the COVID-19 pandemic, the normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states; and the killing of the head of the military nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Biden’s election offers new hope of removing the sanctions and returning to the nuclear deal. Iran’s opening...
On January 4, 2021, Iran announced that it had begun enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent at a well-protected facility in Fordow. This level of enrichment departs completely from Iran’s commitment stipulated in the agreement reached with the world powers in 2015 (JCPOA). There are two main possible reasons for this Iranian announcement. One, it is intended as a provocation, designed to exert pressure on the world powers to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran, which were renewed by the United States. Two, Iran intends to...
