While an arrangement that leaves Iran as a nuclear threshold state may be the lesser of all evils for the United States, it can be expected to be very bad for Israel. A signed agreement of this sort will widen the existing disputes between the Israeli government and the US administration, as well as the gaps in positions on how to deal with Iran. A dangerous shadow may be cast over the strategic relations between Israel and the US. At the same time, Israel stands to gain certain advantages with an agreement that stops Iran at the...
A new Israeli government has yet to be formed and sworn in, but the Israeli and international media have already predicted a collision between Israel and the international community, including the United States. Given the political ideology shared by the potential coalition partners and their approach to the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, that prediction is not hard to make. Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to juxtapose the stability of his future government against the risks involved in pursuing the pre-election political promises...
Operation Protective Edge ended in August 2014, leaving the Gaza Strip entrenched in a complex humanitarian reality. The international community committed itself to the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, and at a conference in Cairo close to the end of the military operation some $5.4 billion was promised. However, for several reasons the project has not yet commenced and the Gaza Strip is now a powder keg: hence the need for a creative solution that would bridge the respective gaps, positions, and demands, and improve the likelihood...
The Minsk II Agreement, reached on February 12, 2015 between Ukraine and the separatist provinces in the east of the country, did not lead to an immediate ceasefire. The Russian-backed separatists intensified the fighting and succeeded in encircling and defeating the Ukrainian forces in the Debaltseve bulge. Russia is thus working to establish the separatist provinces as a significant actor and position them as leverage against Ukraine’s tilt to the West. Overall, Russia is working to create a “frozen conflict” in Ukraine, which can...
Zvi Magen | Sarah Fainberg | Olena Bagno-Moldavsky
The shock that gripped France following the terrorist attacks in Paris in early January 2015 will probably wane as time passes. Similarly, the urgency assigned to effective handling of the danger originating on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq that threatens Western democracies will likely decline. The need to take up the challenge will be postponed to a time when the leaders of Western countries have no choice but to deal with it directly, on a broad scale, and perhaps violently. Presumably only a chain of exceptional events,...
Trends that marked the Middle East in preceding years that were joined in 2014 by new developments are analyzed in this volume, as well as the response of regional and international actors to these processes of change. To date, no political or military response has been found to contain the threat inherent in the crises occupying the regional and international communities in recent years, let alone resolve them. It is therefore likely that these crises will maintain their central position on the international agenda both during 2015...
The Middle East of 2014 might well be described as a bubbling cauldron. Voluntarily or involuntarily, the main international actors – the US, Russia, and to some extent the European Union (EU) – were drawn into the maelstrom. The seizure by the Islamic State (IS) organization of large swaths of territory in Iraq and Syria, along with its attempt to expand into stable countries such as Jordan and the Gulf monarchies, forced the US and some of its allies to revise their policy of avoiding military intervention in the internal events...
The overall framework for assessing developments in the course of 2014 regarding the Iranian nuclear crisis is the ongoing negotiation geared to conclusion of a comprehensive deal between the P5+1 and Iran. These negotiations began in January 2014, with the implementation of the interim deal – or in its official name, the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), secured in late November 2013 – and continue to the time of this writing, after the parties failed to meet two deadlines along the way: July 20, 2014 and November 24, 2014. When the...
As the talks between Iran and the P5+1 continue, the INSS Arms Control and Regional Security Program held a simulation exercise to explore possible developments following a “bad nuclear deal” – one that effectively enables Iran to maintain a nuclear breakout capability. The simulation highlighted some possible outcomes that could follow the signing of a “bad” nuclear agreement with Iran, and on this basis recommended several courses of action, including: Israel should act now to close potential loopholes in any prospective deal...
On September 5, 2014, a ceasefire agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine was signed in Minsk. Notwithstanding doubts from various directions, the arrangement went into effect, and thus far is holding. Yet what is emerging is that Russia’s achievement in promoting its essential interests in Ukraine’s eastern districts is nothing more than defeat in the war over Ukraine as a whole, which is looking westward – notwithstanding the loss of Crimea and the damage to its status in the separatist districts – and will remain outside the...
The interim deal on Iran’s nuclear program, secured in late November 2013 and implemented from January 20, 2014, was intended to create space for the tough negotiations over a comprehensive deal that would close the Iranian nuclear file. The essays compiled in this volume analyze some of the key issues that have emerged regarding efforts to carve out a “good” nuclear deal with Iran, and highlight additional perspectives that have not been at the heart of the debate. Discussed in this collection are general principles for negotiating...
Even in changing regional circumstances, Hamas has consistently demonstrated resolute persistence in its struggle against Israel. The economics of the Gaza Strip has been a critical element in the events of the past month, and therefore, it is likewise a crucial piece of any lasting resolution. A fundamental change in the economic situation means a real improvement, not just the siege lifted and some border crossings opened. New international mechanisms, not under Hamas or Israel auspices, must be established to implement the change....
