The INSS 14th Annual International Conference, “National Security in an Atmosphere of Global and Internal Disorder,” was held on January 26-28, 2021. Participating in the conference were foreign ministers (from Germany, India, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), party leaders in Israel, guest experts from Israel and abroad, and INSS researchers. The discussions and lectures highlighted four key motifs that will affect Israel’s national security in the coming year – two related to the external-regional and...
With the possibility of the United States and Iran resuming negotiations on a return to the nuclear agreement, a recent article by the Iranian Foreign Minister in a leading US journal detailing Tehran’s positions is particularly noteworthy. The main gaps between the parties concern who takes the first step: while the administration wants Iran to act first, the Iranians expect the United States to lift the sanctions and only then will Iran fulfill its obligations under the agreement. The Iranians also reject a US demand to link...
On January 15, 2021 it was reported that the Trump administration decided to transfer Israel from the US European Command (EUCOM) area to the Central Command (CENTCOM). The decision, published on the eve of the change in administration in the United States, seeks to promote regional security arrangements, particularly in face of threats from Iran. Like the Abraham Accords, this decision brought to the surface deep, discreet, and longstanding relations between the parties, while narrowing gaps between policy and organization and the...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
If 2020 is remembered for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 stands to be the year of the vaccine. Nonetheless, the coronavirus will continue to shape the world, and the likely scenario is a gradual decline of the pandemic, marked by sporadic outbreaks. In the second half of the year, the effects of the vaccine will be felt, the Biden administration will settle in, and there may be a new government in Israel. The international system remains polarized, even as each country focuses on its individual problems. The Biden...
Senior members of the incoming US administration have stressed that they intend to advance a return by the United States to the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as a lifting of sanctions, if Iran returns to its obligations under the agreement. Iran, for its part, clarifies that there is no room for negotiation on an improved agreement, and it has already raised the level of uranium enrichment at Fordow to 20 percent, as a means of putting pressure on Biden. It appears that Israel has for the time being chosen to publicly challenge the...
Once President-elect Biden enters the White House, Israel will have to work with a president whose policy on Iran is expected to differ from that of the Trump administration. Both the incoming and outgoing administrations have made an identical fundamental commitment: to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Beyond this, however, they disagree about how to achieve the goal, and how to deal with the Iranian missile program and other negative elements of Iranian conduct in the region, which were not addressed in the JCPOA. For...
The strategic message that was the legacy of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to keep a low profile, move forward quietly, and be patient, changed under Xi Jinping’s leadership, and especially during the four years of the Trump administration. Deng’s policy was succeeded by the “wolf warrior diplomacy,” reflected in China’s greater extremism in statements against other countries, aggressive reactions to criticism, and punishment of countries that it believes harm its interests. It is an open question whether in...
After years of a weakening transatlantic alliance, exacerbated by President Trump’s four years in office, strategic cooperation between the European Union and the United States is likely to resume. This cooperation is necessary to tackle the coronavirus crisis and its consequences, as well as the geopolitical and technological changes that have occurred over the last two decades. The renewed dialogue between the two sides of the Atlantic will have implications for several other actors in the international arena, primarily...
The United States Director of National Intelligence recently cast China as the number one threat to the US, described Beijing’s modus operandi, and called on Washington’s allies to wake up to the challenge and respond appropriately. For its part, Israel should enhance its intelligence resources dedicated to China and develop an independent and well-founded estimate of the challenges it presents to Israel, drawing on lessons learned around the world; identify gaps in Israel’s current response; strengthen the risk management...
