Russia’s decision to break its alliance with OPEC was motivated by the desire to change the dynamics of the energy market – in which the cartel provided a “safety net” for American production while Russian corporations were a target of sanctions from Washington – and to demonstrate its ability to influence the global and the Middle East economy. Yet notwithstanding the heated rhetoric and price competition, it appears that both Russia and Saudi Arabia have an interest in resuming cooperation in the framework of an “updated cartel”...
A phenomenon that has intensified over the past decade in the Middle East is the use of mercenaries to project power and to realize interests. It seems that the Gulf states, Turkey, and Russia are leaders in this trend, using numerous mercenaries for combat missions beyond their borders. Mercenaries give those who deploy them a tool for managing warfare beyond their own borders, and another means of power projection while reducing their official losses. Israel, which is currently engaged in the struggle against Iranian entrenchment...
Nine years after the dramatic events of late 2010 and early 2011 (the so-called Arab Spring), the regional upheaval persists and the Middle East continues to be characterized by instability, uncertainty, and volatility. There is broad consensus among researchers and observers that the region is mired in a deep crisis, while undergoing processes with crucial long term implications and engaged in a turbulent contest over its character.
This struggle is unfolding in two realms: first, between four main camps competing over ideas, power,...
At the core of the strategic assessment for 2020 stands the tension between Israel’s evident strength and its success in various fields, and the possibility that this positive state of affairs will prove temporary and fragile. This tension stems from a series of factors that in the coming year could lead to a large-scale conflict and even to war, and involves Israel’s approach to a series of substantive national security challenges: Iran’s increasing audacity – on the nuclear issue, in its efforts at force buildup in Syria and other...
In December 2019, Saudi Arabia went public with Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, and was thus forced to share a partial source of its wealth with others. The IPO is designed to raise funding for the Vision 2030 plan, whose goals include reducing the kingdom’s reliance on oil revenues by shifting investment capital to other sectors. Yet the scale of the IPO (1.75 percent of company shares) and the sum raised are far from meeting the country’s vast needs. Iran’s attack on the company’s facilities in September 2019 has not...
Oman faces a test of stability following the passing of its leader of the past half century, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said. For years, the Sultanate’s stability was ensured thanks to Qaboos’s sober and carefully balanced policy, centering on equilibrium and mediation between hostile neighbors, while striving to maintain a neutral image. However, following his death, other elements, especially regional actors, may try to increase their involvement and influence in the sultanate, which possesses abundant natural resources and a...
Following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw United States forces from the Kurdish zone in northern Syria, the international media and many political and military commentators hurried to crown Russia as the big winner in Syria and present it as the entity enjoying free rein there. The many summits President Putin has recently held with Middle East leaders (including a meeting with Turkish President Erdogan, a state visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and a summit in Russia hosted jointly with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah...
Recent signs point to a mutual effort by Iran and Saudi Arabia to clear the air and ease tensions, and suggest a willingness to address disputes through dialogue. New contacts between these countries come against the backdrop of the September 14, 2019 attack on the kingdom’s main oil facilities, which was attributed to Iran and temporarily shut down approximately half of Saudi oil output. Iran demonstrated that even if it would not like to see a sweeping deterioration in regional stability, it is prepared to take greater risks,...
The September 14 attack on the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia – including Abqaiq, which is considered the largest of its kind in the world – is the most serious kinetic attack on oil facilities in the Gulf since the 1991 Gulf War, in terms of damage and economic significance. This incident goes far beyond the bounds of the war in Yemen, particularly if it is proven beyond any doubt that the attack was launched from Iranian territory. Under these circumstances, it is evident that even if Iran is not interested in a broad...
Southern separatist forces, which claim independence for South Yemen and enjoy the support of the UAE, have consolidated their hold on Aden, the alternative capital of the Yemeni central government since it lost Sanaa. This development, which follows the UAE’s announcement that it intends to reduce its forces in Yemen, is yet another sign that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are divided over the nature and possible reformation of the Yemeni state. While Saudi Arabia is determined to return Yemen to its pre-war unified governmental...
In the Arabian Sea, competition has been building for the past few years over control of the strategic ports adjacent to major trade routes. Power struggles have developed in the context of China’s efforts to consolidate its hold on key ports in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Red Sea, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese penetration of this arena has both increased the Indians’ sense of a direct threat and sharpened the United States understanding that it must increase its strategic focus on this...
Three months into a renewed civil war, Libya has emerged as a violent epicenter of the struggle between competing Sunni camps across the Middle East. The current conflict has seen growing involvement of outside powers, including the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Russia, and France – all of which see in the Libyan chaos an opportunity to advance their interests in this failed North African state. For Israel, the situation in Libya has significance, albeit indirect, in four respects: the impact of the Libyan turmoil on...
