A comparative analysis enables us to examine different approaches to the challenges posed by the corona pandemic around the world. Most countries have adopted a similar coping strategy, based on three components: the first is a lockdown policy (to varying degrees), in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and avoid overloading the health system; the second is the improvement of preparedness and readiness in health systems; and the third is a broad economic aid package in response to the sudden economic shutdown and the deep...
The corona crisis, which has fueled a high degree of global uncertainty and increased the chances of distorted perceptions, will likely also have an impact on Israel’s strategic environment. While the outbreak of the virus reduces the chances of military escalation anytime soon, a brainstorming session held at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) highlighted ten negative scenarios that could occur during the crisis. The outbreak itself could increase the likelihood of: a collapse of regimes and governing systems, a wave...
Itai Brun | Yoel Guzansky | Daniel Rakov | Sarah J. Feuer
The number of people in Israel infected with the coronavirus continues to rise, a large part of the economy is shut down, and the state is edging closer to a full lockdown. This article compares the strategy adopted by the Israeli government with an alternative strategy proposed by critics. Above all, the political echelon, which demands from the people sacrifice at times of crisis and war, must rise above political disputes and unite to enable Israel to handle the crisis in the best way possible. In this context, it is necessary to...
For all the significant differences between fighting pandemics and waging wars, both challenges are matters of life and death that involve complex and multidimensional campaigns. Both require superior crisis management and policy decision making from a broad and integrative perspective, as the quality of these measures may well decide the future of the nation and the civilian population. The cumulative experience of the Israeli defense establishment offers lessons and insights ꟷ in terms of intelligence, strategic and operational...
The spread of the coronavirus is a national security crisis for Israel that demands a multidisciplinary strategy to confront the crisis. It requires the appointment of a campaign operator to govern public health measures, secure economic and societal strength, and prepare for the various consequences of the epidemic. As part of the strategic process, we recommend a core idea that is based on a phased approach to the crisis. Stage 1, the current stage, involves a lockdown in order to control the rate of morbidity and buy time so that...
Israel’s management of the coronavirus epidemic is proving to be one of the most challenging events since the establishment of the state. To judge by the emerging indications, this is a fourfold crisis, relating to public health, the economy, the national mindset, and politics. Given the intensity of the crisis and its likely intensification, the IDF has begun preparing for active and broad participation in the national effort to manage the crisis. First steps have already been taken, mainly by the Homefront Command (HFC). This...
Israel is in a state of emergency: schools are closed, businesses are shut, and people continue to lose their source of income. Optimal handling of this dramatic challenge demands a combined strategy. The primary thrust, prevention, protection, and containment, must be complemented by a strategy to promote societal resilience as the secondary effort. The former is intended to block or slow the spread of the disease, while the latter is designed to ensure functional continuity, so as to enable the threatened national system to bounce...
Carmit Padan | Meir Elran | Einav Levi | Sasson Hadad | Ahaz Ben Ari
In mid-February 2020, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi presented the IDF’s new multi-year plan, “Tnufa” (“Momentum”). In the organizational realm, the plan includes a change to the General Staff: the division of the responsibilities of the Planning Directorate between two directorates to be established – a multi-service directorate for force buildup, and a strategy and Iran directorate. Like all organizational moves, this change will involve difficulties stemming from its very implementation. Moreover, the benefit it...
The possibility that the northern arena is on the brink of escalation and liable to deteriorate into war was raised on several recent occasions, including: the annual intelligence assessment of the Military Intelligence Directorate that was presented to military reporters; a speech by the Chief of Staff on December 29, 2019 at a conference in Herzliya; and the INSS annual strategic assessment published at the start of 2020. In contrast with these assessments, the war game held as part of the INSS annual international conference in...
“The Deal of the Century,” formulated by the Trump administration, is presented as a new paradigm for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that also shapes the architecture of a new Middle East. The plan recognizes Israel’s extensive security requirements and enables Israel to apply its sovereignty on the settlement blocs, the Jordan Valley, and the isolated settlements; avoids uprooting and evacuating Jewish settlers; and preserves a united Jerusalem under Israeli sovereignty. For the Palestinian side, the plan outlines...
Israel’s Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, which is in its second year, is the largest ever signed between the two countries. However, contracts have not yet been signed for large purchases, such as new platforms and weapons systems, due to previous commitments about purchasing in the past. At the same time, the IDF has a tremendous need for key platforms and systems sold by the United States, including fighter planes, fuel tankers, and heavy helicopters, mainly because most of those it currently has were purchased...
The probability of an outbreak of war as a result of deterioration and escalation is not low and also depends on Israel—that is the implication of the annual intelligence assessment of the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID). Nevertheless, the MID’s recommendation to the government is to increase IDF attacks against Iranian forces in Syria, in order to exploit the elimination of Soleimani to drive them out of the country. This article analyzes the recommendation and reaches a different conclusion: Israel must not increase its...
