Publications

Significant changes have taken place in Iran’s regional standing since the start of the previous decade, largely as a result of the regional upheavals and Iran’s efforts to cope with the new situation. There were three main reasons for these changes. The first is the rise of a new type of terrorist organization with far reaching political and religious pretensions that seeks to promote global jihad – and also threatens Iran and its interests in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaeda was the first such organization, followed by Islamic State (IS). The second reason is US military intervention in two of Iran’s neighbors: Afghanistan, where activity that began in late 2001 is now in its final stages, and Iraq, which saw US activity from March 2003 until late 2011. The third reason is the turmoil that has rocked the Arab world in the past four years and likewise impacts on Iran. These changes join a previous wave of changes since the early 1980s that upset Iran’s strategic environment: the Iran-Iraq War, the 1991 Gulf War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of the United States as the sole superpower in the world, and thus the Middle East as well.