Iraq after the Elections

The elections for a provisional parliament held in Iraq on January 30 have been described as a revolutionary event that will change the face of Iraq, and perhaps of the entire Middle East. But despite the success inherent in the very fact that an election took place, the judgment that it heralds a revolutionary transformation is, at best, premature. After all, this “free” election actually took place under the watchful eyes of no less than 300,000 foreign and Iraqi security forces. And the historical experience of Iraq under British control in the last century is that when western guidance and oversight were withdrawn, democratic structures quickly collapsed.