Strategic Assessment

Since 2012 there has been a significant improvement in Russia-Iran relations, evidenced by meetings between senior figures, joint military activities in Syria, and plans for a substantive expansion of connections, including in weapons supply, nuclear facilities, and economic ties. This improvement reflects shared Russian and Iranian interests and the countries’ need for one another. However, their shared interests have not yet led to an alliance, and their relations are marked by disagreements and distrust, resulting from their respective goals and global and regional considerations. For Israel, the warming of Russia-Iran relations has negative implications: Russia is willing to provide high quality weapons to Iran, some of which may reach Hezbollah; both countries will work to weaken American influence in the region; Iran is expected to strengthen its regional standing; and Iran may receive Russian help with nuclear matters. At the same time, there may be positive aspects for Israel: the improvement in relations could help stabilize the situation in Syria and weaken the jihadist organizations, and may enable Russia to serve as a moderating influence on Iran in the future.