Strategic Assessment

This paper analyzes the evolution of Italian-Egyptian relations after the murder of Giulio Regeni and the reasons behind the relatively quick resolution of the crisis. The Regeni case illustrates how most European countries see Egyptian stability as vital, to the extent that they are willing to pay for it in terms of leverage and credibility. However, while Europeans may turn a blind eye to Egyptian government repression, and this repression may well curb the flow of migrants to Europe, it could also become a greater driver of chaos in the longer term. Nevertheless, European leaders, largely for populist electoral reasons, are unlikely to adopt a more farsighted strategy toward Egypt.