Strategic Assessment

The territorial losses suffered by the self-proclaimed Islamic State over the past year, the fall of the stronghold Mosul, and the encirclement of the caliphate’s de facto capital al-Raqqa signal the imminent military defeat of the Islamic State. However, the ideological vacuum, frustration, and alienation typical of communities in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring, the absence of a political alternative, and the lack of other local effective governance raise the possibility that the Islamic State will survive its military defeat. As such, it is imperative to assess how this entity is likely to evolve. Understanding the Islamic State’s past evolution may help in sketching its likely future. In this context, measures can then be proposed to deal with a reincarnation of the Islamic State.