Strategic Assessment

The reference scenario for a future conflict against Hezbollah and/or Hamas approved by the Israeli government in June 2016 is bound to affect the home front. The main change to the reference scenario, the first of its type presented and approved as a basis for future preparations, is the far graver threat than that of previous conflicts, manifested primarily by the introduction of more precise high trajectory weapons. These enable adversaries to switch from the previous strategy of “harassment,” based mostly on statistical weapons, to a revised strategy of “severe disruption.” The difference lies in the scope of launches, and above all, the greater damage resulting especially from what is referred to as the focused “assaults” on urban areas. These are likely to consist of dense barrages fired against urban targets during the first days of the conflict, which are liable to cause unprecedented harm to the population and damage to critical infrastructure. This article examines the existing possible responses to the new reference scenario, and argues that the gap between the developing threat and the civilian population’s current state of preparedness has widened. The article proposes concrete measures to narrow this gap.