INSS Insight

On December 8, 2024, Syria experienced a historic turning point with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This dramatic development has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty and transition, offering both risks and opportunities. While it is still too early to determine Syria’s long-term trajectory, the new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made cautious moves to stabilize the country. However, Israel’s initial reaction—shaped by security anxieties and the trauma of the October 7 attack—has resulted in a militarized and...

Hezbollah—now a defeated force—is under growing pressure from the IDF’s ongoing military campaign to erode its capabilities and hinder its recovery; the unraveling of the Shiite axis; and, most significantly, the growing internal and external calls for the organization to disarm. Yet Hezbollah, clinging to its identity as a resistance movement, refuses to give up its status or objectives and declares it will not disarm. At the same time, it is taking steps to secure a pause in hostilities that would allow time for its recovery. Given...

The nuclear discussions between Iran and the United States are continuing, with both sides expressing a preference for an agreement over military confrontation—even though, at this stage, it is impossible to assess whether they will succeed in bridging existing gaps or those that may arise later. For now, both parties have expressed optimism and appear to believe that there is value in deepening the talks. The meeting that was supposed to take place on May 3 will likely be held in the coming days. According to President Trump, who...

The risks to Israel’s economy have risen in recent weeks, along with the likelihood of a financial crisis in Israel. This is due to three events that occurred simultaneously: the end of the ceasefire in Gaza and the resumption of fighting, the approval of a problematic state budget for 2025, and political instability reflected in the dismissal of gatekeepers and the return of the judicial overhaul. All these raise many questions regarding the fiscal responsibility of the Israeli government in general, and the financing of the war in...

After the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the US Department of Defense undertook an extensive evaluation of the conflict, commissioning no fewer than 37 separate studies, including a still-classified seven-volume report on weapon systems. American military personnel walked the battlefields alongside Israeli commanders who had fought there, analyzing the strategies and technologies that enabled Israel to prevail against overwhelming odds. The lessons drawn from Israel’s battlefield successes would profoundly shape US military doctrine, directly...

Israel faces three possible strategic paths to achieving the objectives of the war: the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the imposition of a military administration; a siege on the Strip, in which Hamas is weakened and deterred; or an agreement to discuss the Arab proposal for the reconstruction and stabilization of the Strip and the establishment of an alternative governing authority. Of these three, the diplomatic path—discussing the Arab proposal—is the only option that could advance the war’s objectives at a relatively low cost....

An empirical examination and historical review of appointments to key positions in the IDF’s General Staff over the past five decades reveal a marked tendency toward similarity bias, particularly evident in the frequent promotion of individuals from the Paratroopers and Sayeret Matkal units. This bias reflects a form of “human duplication,” stemming from a preference to appoint people who resemble oneself. As similar individuals tend to think alike, it reduces critical, challenging, and skeptical thinking, thereby affecting the...

China is undertaking efforts to influence the Israeli public through China Radio International (CRI), embassy activities that include journalist delegations and the publication of articles and interviews in Israeli media, and collaborations with local media outlets. While China works to promote narratives favorable to its global image, it is important that the public be able to distinguish between legitimate influence efforts and covert operations aimed at shaping public consciousness. Therefore, the Israeli media should examine the...

In May 2024, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, was inaugurated. Since then, tensions around Taiwan have continued to escalate, including stronger rhetoric by all parties, increased US arms sales to Taiwan, legislative moves in the US Congress targeting China, and, of course, military threats by China. In early December 2024, tensions peaked when China conducted significant naval and aerial military activities around Taiwan without any prior announcement of an official exercise. Reports from Taiwan indicated that China’s...

The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) conducted a simulation to examine the possible implications of a situation in which Israel, Hamas, the United States, and other actors in the Middle East find themselves at a decision-making crossroads due to a disagreement over the second phase of the hostage release framework. The simulation illustrated the strategic complexity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, the negotiations surrounding the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the path toward ending the war. The...

This article aims to address the recurring questions recently raised in Israel regarding Egypt’s expanded military presence in the Sinai Peninsula and near the international border with Israel, alongside its significant military buildup during the years of President el-Sisi’s rule. Such discussions often emphasize a link between these two issues, with claims emerging that Egypt is preparing for a pre-emptive war against Israel. Egyptians are not indifferent to such pronouncements, which have sparked critical discourse toward Israel...

Food security is one of the top strategic priorities for the Chinese government, with President Xi Jinping setting a goal of self-reliance in food production through the use of advanced and sustainable technologies. However, significant challenges stand between this vision and reality, including shrinking agricultural land, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and outdated technologies. These challenges present an opportunity for Israel to expand cooperation with China in the fields of agriculture, water resources, and...