INSS Insight

The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel marks the end of the current—and thus far most severe—phase in the ongoing hostilities between the Islamic Republic and Israel. Israel can conclude this phase of the conflict with a degree of satisfaction: even if Iran still retains a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—which it possessed before the campaign and may have transferred to hidden locations—its nuclear program has been significantly set back. Conversely, Iran is expected to portray the battle as a success, regardless of its...

This article reframes the current global landscape: the United States faces not a regional conflict but a decisive struggle for its established world order. Five states—Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Qatar—are coordinately challenging American hegemony, using economic, cyber, and cognitive warfare, a dynamic the United States often struggles to fully grasp. Iran, the most vulnerable yet dangerous link, looms as a nuclear threat that would irreversibly shift global power and constrain US influence. With Europe largely...

Three days into the campaign between Israel and Iran, Tehran is approaching a crossroads regarding the continuation of hostilities, a potential exit strategy, and a possible post-conflict arrangement. For now, Iran remains focused on managing the war. However, as the campaign continues and the damage accumulates, Tehran will need to choose between maintaining the current level of confrontation, ending the fighting through a political arrangement, or escalating further—potentially by withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty...

During Israel’s ongoing war, the Arab peace states—especially Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates—have expressed deep mistrust, frustration, and even bewilderment over Israel’s conduct. These sentiments have recently intensified and appear to have reached a peak. While these countries acknowledge Israel’s military achievements and recognize that they could have a positive impact on the Middle East, they are also profoundly disturbed by what they perceive as Israel’s rigid, one-dimensional militaristic approach—namely, the...

Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China has promoted a series of global initiatives—the first of which was the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), followed in recent years by the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). These initiatives, alongside the concept of a “community with a shared future for mankind,” are part of a broader strategy to reshape China’s international environment and advance a Chinese vision for the global order. For Israel, it is...

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published two alarming reports regarding Iran’s nuclear program. One report addresses Iran’s past activities at sites not declared to the IAEA, for which Tehran has failed to provide satisfactory explanations. The second report concerns the current status of the program and indicates an acceleration in the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, enabling Iran to enrich to military grade for 10 nuclear bombs within days. Both reports are expected to be discussed at the upcoming IAEA Board...

In his book The Hi-Tech Army and the Cavalry Army: How Israel Abandoned the Ground Forces (Hebrew, 2024), written mostly before the war in Gaza, Brig. Gen. (res.) Guy Hazut sharply criticizes the steadily declining importance and chronic neglect of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground forces over recent decades. He critiques the division of the IDF into an elite “hi-tech army,” relying on the air force, precision-guided munitions, and special forces, on the one hand, and, on the other, the supposedly outdated “cavalry army”—the...

The domestic American, regional, and global reality is currently undergoing dramatic changes. Will Israeli–US relations remain immune to these upheavals and their diverse consequences? Will the relations continue as they have (subject to circumstantial adjustments)? Will Israel’s value as an asset outweigh the burden it may pose for the United States? In answering these questions, the significant erosion in the pillars of the “special relationship”—the shared ethos and mutual interests, as well as cracks in the bridge connecting the...

In May, the IDF launched Operation “Gideon’s Chariots,” aimed at achieving the war’s objectives in the Gaza Strip: securing the return of the hostages and dismantling Hamas both militarily and politically. The full scope of the “Gideon’s Chariots” operational plan remains unclear, and contradictions have emerged between statements made by military officials and political leaders. It is also uncertain whether there is genuine intent to carry out all phases of the operation; some of the announcements may be...

The major developments that have unfolded in the region since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip—and especially in recent months—require a renewed examination of the relevance of the concept of the “Shiite Axis” led by Iran. Over the past two decades, Tehran has worked to shape a network of regional actors—mainly sub-state entities—based on a shared ideology of resistance to Israel and the West, aiming to expand its influence and create strategic depth. While in the past, this “axis” was considered a centralized and...

The cloud market in the Middle East is emerging as a battleground in the global struggle for technological influence, where the United States and China are competing for control over digital infrastructure, the setting of technological standards, and the shaping of the rules that will govern the flow of information and data. China’s technological expansion in the region may gradually pose increasing challenges for Israel—necessitating the development of a strategic and technological policy to safeguard Israeli interests amid evolving...

This article reviews and analyzes trends in trade between Israel and China in 2024, set against the backdrop of the Swords of Iron war and the ongoing trade war. Three key developments stand out compared to 2023. First, imports from China rose approximately 20% in 2024, following an 18% drop from 2022 to 2023. Israel continues to import more goods from China than from any other country, and in 2024, about 15% of all goods imported to Israel came from China. Second, Israeli exports to China continued to decline. In 2024, Israeli...