Publications

Existential Threat Scenarios to the State of Israel

Memorandum No. 203, INSS, September 2, 2020

During its more than seventy years of existence, the State of Israel has developed impressive military, economic, and diplomatic strengths; has become an undeniable fact; and has been recognized by some of its neighbors. Nonetheless, despite its impressive achievements, Israel still continues to cope with security challenges, including enemies who call for and seek its destruction. This study provides a contemporary analysis of the severe potential threats that could endanger the physical existence of the State of Israel, the functioning of its essential systems, and its unique identity of being a Jewish and democratic state.

In the framework of the research, we analyzed five threat scenarios: the formation of a regional military coalition against Israel; multipolar nuclearization in the Middle East; the collapse of the Israeli defense systems due to a large-scale precision-missile attack led by Iran and its proxies; international isolation and a boycott of Israel; the disintegration of Israel’s social cohesion, and the loss of its identity as a Jewish and democratic state. For each scenario, the research teams examined possible causes, accelerating and inhibiting factors, secondary threats that accompany the main threats, and security pillars that need to be maintained and strengthened in order to defend against these threats.

From an analysis of the threat scenarios, the strengths of Israel’s security pillars become clear; however, internal, regional, and international processes are liable to erode and undermine them, disrupting the balance of forces between Israel and its possible adversaries and strengthening the possibility that the potential existential threats will materialize in the future. Given the conclusions of the research, we have made specific and general recommendations for the decision makers, intended to provide a comprehensive response to the threat scenarios, while using the various tools that Israel has at its disposal.

Table of Contents:

Over the seventy years of its existence, the State of Israel has succeeded in developing impressive military, economic, and diplomatic strengths; it has become an undeniable fact on the regional and global map and many of its neighbors have recognized it de facto. Yet despite its impressive achievements, Israel still continues to cope with security challenges, including dealing with enemies who call for—and possibly even seek—its destruction. This study provides a contemporary analysis of the severe potential threat scenarios that could endanger the physical existence of the State of Israel, the functioning of its essential systems, and its unique identity of being a Jewish and democratic state...

Ofir Winter, Kobi Michael, Assaf Shiloah

The saying “in every generation they rise up against us to destroy us” in the Passover Haggadah reflects the fear that has accompanied the Jewish people since the beginning and—over the course of the two thousand years of exile and persecution—has become an inseparable part of its narrative. The State of Israel, which was established in the shadow of the trauma of the Holocaust, has also faced severe threats since its establishment—some of them existential. Israel is in an ongoing state of existential threat as a small country that seeks to fulfill the right to sovereignty of a national and religious minority, surrounded by states that have refused (and some of which still do) to recognize it and consider it a “foreign implant” in the region. The establishment of the State of Israel has thus been accompanied by constant fears that it would be lost, consequently shining a paradoxical light on the Zionist enterprise: On one hand, its establishment was a historic response to Jewish insecurity; on the other hand, Israel is the modern version of this cognitive state. The centrality of fear to Jewish-Israeli existence has advantages and disadvantages: As an advantage, it fulfills a functional role as a catalyst for advancing mechanisms to defend against real threats. These mechanisms include preparing for threats, taking preventive measures to thwart them, and dealing with efforts to carry them out. As a disadvantage, it includes existential anxiety, which—if it does not reflect a real threat— can be a barrier to rationally analyzing a situation, taking calculated risks, realizing opportunities, and making vital strategic decisions...

Shlomo Brom, Ofir Winter

In April 2018, the IDF Strategy document was published, which assessed that “in recent years and in looking to the coming years, Israel’s strategic standing is solid and has a ‘positive balance sheet’ that is better than all of its enemies in the region.” According to the document, the implication of such a balance sheet “diminishes the potential for war against a militarypolitical coalition.”...

Yoel Guzansky, Ron Tira

In recent years, the Iranian nuclear project has been at the center of the world’s attention and has motivated other states to take the nuclear path. Indeed, countries from Turkey and Saudi Arabia to Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are developing nuclear infrastructure and know-how without a possible military dimension (PMD) as far as we know. Of course, Iran’s progress toward nuclear weapons could accelerate these processes and increase the incentive to give these projects a military dimension. While significant research has focused on the nuclearization of Iran and the threat it poses, less attention has been given to the formation of a multipolar regional nuclear system, the inherent risks, and the challenges involved in maintaining nuclear balance. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the risks inherent in a multipolar regional nuclear system; to review the current nuclear situation in the Middle East; to recognize the accelerating and inhibiting factors in the region’s nuclearization; to identify possible trends of nuclearization that have military dimension; and to recommend an Israeli strategy to counter this threat...

Udi Dekel

The primary and most severe conventional military threat facing Israel today is a missile attack and aerial munitions aimed at strategic targets—civilian and military—deep inside Israeli territory. Given the adversaries’ buildup of attack capabilities, Israel’s defense establishment has formulated a comprehensive defense doctrine, which should provide an effective, resilient, and continuous response to any threat—strategic or tactical—to the State of Israel. The threat profile described in this chapter is based on the current trends in developing attack capabilities among Israel’s enemy states, mainly Iran and its proxies, and it could escalate, due to a situation in which the Israeli defense system is not prepared and has exhausted its capabilities...

Oded Eran

Israel’s foreign relations are a crucial pillar of its defense and a significant tool in blocking and reducing potential threats. Israel’s special relations with the United States, its connection with world Jewry, and its efforts to achieve peace have helped to maintain its international support and to fight against attempts to boycott it. Israel’s strategic relations with the Arab states reflect its value as a regional stabilizing force. Israel’s special relations with states in Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Africa are also a significant part of developing its military, diplomatic, and economic capabilities. Therefore, if Israel were to face international isolation and sanctions, this would be a dangerous scenario that would likely weaken it, making it difficult for Israel to protect its essential strategic interests. An extreme scenario—in which an effective international boycott against Israel and international isolation would be accompanied by other military threats or lead to them—could even pose an existential threat to Israel...

Pnina Sharvit Baruch

Existential threats are not limited to external physical dangers to the state’s existence; they can also be internal threats to the state’s defining character and identity, which are essential both for maintaining its security pillars as well as its resilience in a challenging regional environment. In Israel’s unique context, realizing this threat would signify the loss of the state’s Jewish or democratic character, or it could mean the internal disintegration of Israeli society to the point of deteriorating into civil war...

This study analyzed the potential existential threats facing Israel, their possible consequences, the security pillars that block them, and the internal and external processes that affect their level of severity. In the study, five existential threat scenarios were examined, of which three had a security/ military nature: the formation of a regional coalition against Israel; nuclear proliferation in the Middle East; and the failure of the Israeli response to a combined precision missile attack led by Iran and its proxies. The two additional scenarios had a political/social nature: international isolation and boycott of Israel; and the disintegration of Israeli society and loss of the internal elements of its strength and of its Jewish and democratic identity...

The opinions expressed in INSS publications are the authors’ alone.

Publication Series Memoranda

עברית

Related Publications

All publications

Shutterstock

The Quiet Crisis: How Do Arab States Currently View Israel?

Against the backdrop of a war that has now lasted more than a year and a half, the Arab peace states remain committed to the agreements and to the vision of normalization with Israel. However, there is growing concern that the continuation of Israel’s current policy will cause multidimensional damage to the relations between the sides

11/06/25

Shutterstock

China’s Global Initiatives: Implications and Recommendations for Israel

Beijing is leading a series of initiatives to advance the Chinese vision for the global order. What are the implications for Israel?

11/06/25

Shutterstock

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Between IAEA Warnings and Moves Toward a Deal

An up-to-date overview of the nuclear talks with Iran, in the context of the serious report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency

10/06/25

Publications

Existential Threat Scenarios to the State of Israel

Related Publications

Research

Publications

About

Media

Home

Events

Database

Team

Contact

Newsletter

עברית