Deterrence and its Limitations

Long term effects of the 2006 war in Lebanon cannot yet be determined. International, Arab, and Israeli observers were quick to make predictions about the future of Israeli deterrence, but these appear to be quite premature. What can already be done, however, is to apply parts of the analytical framework of deterrence theory to the current situation, and on this basis assess the deterrence equation between Israel and its adversaries, in particular Hizbollah, before and after the war, and consider the possible outcomes of the war in these terms.