On the night between August 17 and 18, 2026, the Israeli Air Force conducted an unusual strike deep inside Syrian territory, a mere 60 km from the Turkish border. Eight missiles struck the runways at the Abu al-Duhur military airfield in Idlib Governorate. The Prime Minister’s Office de facto confirmed the strike, clarifying that the deployment of Turkish forces on Syrian soil constitutes a red line for Israel. According to the Prime Minister’s Office statement, a security status quo had formed between the countries,...
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan on August 7, includes a mutual defense clause and links three major Muslim states. The agreement has raised concerns in Israel and other countries, including Greece and India. However, its viability as a close military alliance is questionable due to divergent threat maps, competition for Sunni leadership, and the complex relations that both Turkey and Pakistan maintain with Iran. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal lends the alliance deterrent weight but...
The current U.S. administration is advancing a major deal, valued at over $700 million, to sell F110 engines to Turkey for its KAAN aircraft project. Despite the administration’s attempts to bypass congressional barriers, this move is not an isolated event; rather, it is a strategic accelerator intended to pave the way for Ankara’s full return to the F-35 program. While Washington’s rationale seeks to preserve Turkey as an anchor within NATO, in practice, it creates a serious dilemma and presents a weighty,...
Turkey is deeply frustrated by the outbreak of the war in Iran, which Ankara perceives as the realization of some of its worst strategic scenarios, and it is working to end the fighting as quickly as possible. The war poses challenges to Turkey, ranging from missiles being launched into its territory to fears of a significant refugee wave and a renewed flare-up of the Kurdish issue emanating from Iran. Regionally, Ankara has accused Israel of pushing the United States into going to war and is concerned about the strengthening of...
Since the war that erupted on October 7, a profound crisis has unfolded in Turkish–Israeli relations. One of the main manifestations of this crisis is the legal campaign Turkey is waging against Israel. Turkey is operating in this arena to entrench a lasting narrative of Israel’s culpability while refusing to recognize its security needs vis-à-vis a murderous terrorist organization and by portraying Israel as having violated international law, an act that must be punished. The Turkish moves have implications that go beyond the damage...
For Turkey, Iran’s stability is not merely a foreign policy issue but a core component of national security with direct implications for the Turkish economy. Sharing a long border with the Islamic Republic, Ankara views any significant upheaval in Tehran as a potential multidimensional threat. These threats range from waves of migration and disruptions in the energy and trade markets to the central concern of a governing vacuum that could strengthen Kurdish separatist actors (the PKK and its affiliates) along the shared border....
Over the past year, Turkey has been increasingly described as “the new Iran” in Israeli public discourse. Although this characterization is problematic in several respects—including because it downplays the Iranian threat, which remains in force, and because Turkey is a NATO member—it nonetheless reflects concerns about Ankara. Israel is particularly worried by Turkey’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s involvement in the Palestinian issue, and the potential for friction in the Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, Turkey is growing...
A pressing question concerns the extent to which the Gulf states are prepared to send forces to stabilize and rebuild the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which possess significant economic and diplomatic leverage, are setting strict conditions for their involvement: the disarmament of Hamas and the transfer of its powers to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The UAE also demands a fundamental reform of the PA. These conditions may reflect a lack of real willingness to become involved, an understanding that Hamas cannot be...
Turkey’s need to renew its fleet of fighter jets is not new, but it has become more pressing due to acquisitions by other regional states and the outcomes of Israel’s war with Iran. Although Ankara is still dealing with the repercussions of its removal from the F-35 program in 2019, it now has more options than in the past, thanks to its improved political situation as a result of the war in Ukraine, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, and Trump’s return to the White House. Currently, Ankara is considering three main options for...
Despite more than twenty years of promoting Islam under Erdoğan in Turkey and over four and a half decades of Islamic rule in Iran, secularization processes are observable in both countries, especially among the younger generation. In Turkey, despite efforts by the government to promote religion through the education system, public space, and legislation, many young people identify as secular, and there is a clear decline in religious practices such as fasting during Ramadan or praying in mosques. Similarly, in Iran, there is an...
The IMEC initiative reflects the shifting dynamics of the regional and international system, in which traditional and new players seek to reshape the map of transportation, economy, and geopolitical influence between Asia and Europe. The initiative highlights the economic potential of inter-regional connectivity and also the political complexity it entails—from geopolitical rivalries and infrastructure considerations to diplomatic constraints. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and other actors each seek to...
Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdish underground group PKK, made a dramatic call on February 27 for the organization’s militants to disarm and dissolve. This declaration marks a significant turning point in efforts to end the violent chapter of the Kurdish struggle against the Turkish government. While abandoning the PKK’s long-standing fight, which began with the organization’s founding in 1978, will entail considerable challenges, there is evident willingness to act in accordance with Öcalan’s statement, at least...
