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Overview
The Middle East is undergoing an unprecedented transition sparked by Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent regional war. The war in the Gaza Strip provided Iran with its first real opportunity to implement its “unity of the fronts” concept through the simultaneous, coordinated activation of several fronts against Israel and the United States. Iran hoped to avoid direct involvement and the consequences thereof. Ultimately, however, it failed to employ its network of proxies to force Israel to...
Over the past five years, Iran’s activity in the arena of international terrorism has significantly intensified, spreading across vast geographic regions and incorporating criminal organizations in the execution of terrorist operations. Although most Iranian terrorism attempts have been thwarted, there is no guarantee that this success will persist in the future. It is therefore necessary to examine the characteristics of Iran’s use of terrorism in order to improve the chances of countering it.
This memorandum examines...
The major developments that have unfolded in the region since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip—and especially in recent months—require a renewed examination of the relevance of the concept of the “Shiite Axis” led by Iran. Over the past two decades, Tehran has worked to shape a network of regional actors—mainly sub-state entities—based on a shared ideology of resistance to Israel and the West, aiming to expand its influence and create strategic depth. While in the past, this “axis” was considered a centralized and...
Recently, the Houthis have adopted a strategy aimed at exhausting the Israeli population, thereby increasing pressure on the Israeli government to halt its military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Given that Israel’s current approach to countering the Yemeni terrorist organization has been ineffective, it would be prudent to significantly intensify coalition and Israeli efforts against the group’s leadership, as well as its missile production and launch capabilities. Targeting Iran, however, would contradict American interests, risk...
The surprise attack by rebel forces against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently shaking the already fragile Syrian arena. Within just a few days, the rebel organizations managed to take control of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, while engaging in widespread attacks on regime forces and their supporters—without effective resistance from the regime, as was the case during the Syrian civil war. Turkey, which supports the rebels, apparently gave them the green light to launch the offensive and is hoping to...
The continuation of the détente trend in the Middle East, coupled with the war between Israel and Hamas, is contributing to Israel’s isolation in the region. In this article, we assess the regional détente implications for Arab countries and highlight the importance of advancing normalization between Israel and these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence and that of its allies, which could endanger Israel.
Since early November 2023, as part of the military response to the Swords of Iron war by the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance,” Shiite militias in Iraq have been launching missiles and UAVs targeted at Israel. These attacks, which have proliferated in recent months, reflect a shift in the patterns of the militias’ terrorist activity by the militias, which for years mainly attacked American forces in Iraq and Syria. Given this development, it is crucial for Israel and the United States to coordinate their response to this common...
The war in Gaza has provided further evidence for the alarming consequences of the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel. For the first time, Iran has used the Hamas attack and the war to implement its strategy of simultaneously activating its regional network of allies and proxy organizations against Israel. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has adopted an anti-Israeli position. However, the escalating friction between the two states, especially during the last decade, has evolved from a primarily ideological to a...
The Swords of Iron war between Israel and Hamas has assumed a new regional nature, with attacks by Iranian proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen. While Yemen is a secondary combat zone, the potential damage it could cause to Israel and the Gulf states, which have been accused by the Houthis of collaborating with Israel, could increase. If the Houthis continue to be involved in the fighting, Israel will be forced to find ways to deter them and respond to their aggression, which will make it hard for the Gulf states to maintain...
The increase in attacks by pro-Iranian militias against the US presence in Iraq and Syria, and the corresponding increase in the number of US forces in the region – coupled with the clear warnings from senior US officials that they hold Iran responsible for the tension – are signs of possible escalation. Although neither the United States nor Iran wants a direct confrontation, these developments, in addition to the potential deterioration of the situation between Israel and Hezbollah, have heightened the possibility of such a...
Russian dependence on Iran has deepened over the past few months, reflected in a variety of developments in security, foreign policy, and economic realms, in which Moscow increased its support for Iranian interests. Tightened relations, and especially Iranian assistance to Russia in the framework of Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine, indicate that the cooperation between the two countries is not just tactical; rather, it reflects a strategic decision by both sides. This development not only directly impacts Iranian force buildup and...
