Although we are currently in the midst of a war and do not yet know how it will end, the US negotiations initiative—which may bring the campaign to an end—requires a clear definition of Israel’s interest regarding the Iranian nuclear project.
The conclusion of Operation Roaring Lion will place Israel and the international community before a new strategic reality vis-à-vis Iran. The regime in Tehran, if it survives the war, may—after experiencing systemic trauma and damage to its senior leadership—adopt a national security doctrine...
Iran is embroiled in an ongoing crisis with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as Iran does not allow it to inspect the sites struck during the 12-day war with Israel. It is also locked in a standoff with the United States, as Tehran refuses to renew negotiations—despite mediation efforts mainly by actors from the Gulf states—so long as the demand for zero enrichment remains in place. Inside Iran, too, a debate over negotiations is underway; for now, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has determined that the Trump administration...
Two central pillars of Iran’s security perception have been undermined since its war with Israel: First, its nuclear program has suffered a severe blow, and second, the “resistance camp” of its regional proxies has been weakened to the point that, for now, it cannot stand by Iran’s side. Tehran must now formulate its nuclear policy under intense time pressure—caught between President Trump’s ultimatum and the threat from the European countries (the E3) to renew the UN Security Council sanctions by activating the “snapback” clause....
The war between Israel and Iran, known as Operation Rising Lion, significantly set back Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is no longer a nuclear threshold state as its status was prior to its war with Israel. It would take Iran at least one to two years to regain threshold status, assuming a decision by Supreme Leader Khamenei to pursue nuclear weapons. However, the war did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities entirely. Iran maintains residual capabilities that could eventually enable the rebuilding of its nuclear program and the...
Operation Rising Lion, carried out on Iranian soil was a highly significant campaign, showcasing operational artistry, excellence, and a sophisticated, complementary international diplomatic effort. Whereas gratification is in order, the campaign must be analyzed objectively and professionally. Were its goals truly achieved? Has an existential threat to the State of Israel been removed? Has Israel’s security situation improved meaningfully or is it caught in a vicious circle of tactical excellence and strategic failure?
Although it...
The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel marks the end of the current—and thus far most severe—phase in the ongoing hostilities between the Islamic Republic and Israel. Israel can conclude this phase of the conflict with a degree of satisfaction: even if Iran still retains a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%—which it possessed before the campaign and may have transferred to hidden locations—its nuclear program has been significantly set back. Conversely, Iran is expected to portray the battle as a success, regardless of its...
Since the outbreak of direct hostilities between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025, Israeli strikes have occurred at major nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, Parchin, Bonab, Tehran, and Arak. In addition, at least eleven or more leading Iranian nuclear scientists have reportedly been assassinated. This spotlight report assesses the IDF’s target set, the scope of the damage, and the initial implications for Iran’s nuclear program. Nuclear Sites That Have Been Struck
Core Assets in the Uranium Enrichment Sector: Isfahan...
Three days into the campaign between Israel and Iran, Tehran is approaching a crossroads regarding the continuation of hostilities, a potential exit strategy, and a possible post-conflict arrangement. For now, Iran remains focused on managing the war. However, as the campaign continues and the damage accumulates, Tehran will need to choose between maintaining the current level of confrontation, ending the fighting through a political arrangement, or escalating further—potentially by withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty...
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion (“Am KeLavi”) targeting Iran’s missile and nuclear program.
This interactive map highlights the locations of direct attacks on Iranian territory attributed to Israel, along with Iran’s key military and nuclear facilities.
The map is updated regularly and as accurately as possible, based on open-source intelligence assessments and media reports.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published two alarming reports regarding Iran’s nuclear program. One report addresses Iran’s past activities at sites not declared to the IAEA, for which Tehran has failed to provide satisfactory explanations. The second report concerns the current status of the program and indicates an acceleration in the accumulation of highly enriched uranium, enabling Iran to enrich to military grade for 10 nuclear bombs within days. Both reports are expected to be discussed at the upcoming IAEA Board...
As the renewal of nuclear talks approaches, the Iranian leadership faces an increasingly sharp dilemma over the strategy it should adopt regarding its nuclear program. On one side, figures from the “moderate” camp are urging Tehran’s leadership to take a conciliatory approach that would lead to a nuclear agreement with the United States in exchange for concessions on its uranium enrichment program. On the other side, voices within the “conservative” camp are growing louder, advocating for Iran to reconsider its nuclear strategy and...
Regional developments are posing challenges to Iran and the pro-Iranian axis it leads, raising doubts about the effectiveness of the main elements of its deterrence against its enemies. These elements include Iran’s use of “proxies,” its strategic military capabilities (missiles and drones), and its nuclear program. Recent months have revealed shortcomings in Iran’s security concept, which could lead to different approaches among the Iranian leadership. This may result in limited adjustments or a more strategic shift, especially...
