In the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region—areas whose security and strategic importance for Israel have grown significantly over the past two years—lies Somaliland, an independent and pro-Western state that has yet to be recognized by the international community. Its primary objective is to secure recognition and to build alliances with states that can support it vis-à-vis its rival, the Somali government in Mogadishu. In recent years, Somaliland has cultivated close ties with the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. Its leadership...
Israel may seem far removed from the Arctic, yet it does have interests in the region, spanning defense, diplomacy, and economics. While the defense dimension has generally been beneficial, the diplomatic aspect has, at times, posed major challenges. The economic interests, although notable, are less significant compared to the other two. How Israel manages each of these areas could ultimately determine whether its engagement with the Arctic helps or harms its broader national interests.
The recent visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Tunisia adds to the mutual decision to abolish visa requirements between the two countries, underscoring Iran’s strong interest in expanding its influence in North Africa in general, and in Tunisia in particular. For the leadership in Tehran, North Africa represents a highly significant geo-strategic region that allows Iran to advance a variety of political, economic, and security interests. Therefore, without a diplomatic move to prevent Iran from pursuing this goal,...
This article reviews and analyzes trends in trade between Israel and China in 2024, set against the backdrop of the Swords of Iron war and the ongoing trade war. Three key developments stand out compared to 2023. First, imports from China rose approximately 20% in 2024, following an 18% drop from 2022 to 2023. Israel continues to import more goods from China than from any other country, and in 2024, about 15% of all goods imported to Israel came from China. Second, Israeli exports to China continued to decline. In 2024, Israeli...
The risks to Israel’s economy have risen in recent weeks, along with the likelihood of a financial crisis in Israel. This is due to three events that occurred simultaneously: the end of the ceasefire in Gaza and the resumption of fighting, the approval of a problematic state budget for 2025, and political instability reflected in the dismissal of gatekeepers and the return of the judicial overhaul. All these raise many questions regarding the fiscal responsibility of the Israeli government in general, and the financing of the war in...
The 2025 state budget, set at NIS 607 billion, was approved by the government on November 1 after contentious debates within the coalition. The government aimed to present a budget that would support the country’s growing security needs and the populations affected by the war while also reducing the deficit and encouraging economic growth. In practice, the approved budget should meet Israel’s security needs, but it is doubtful whether it will address the country’s broader economic needs. The unwillingness to significantly cut...
After a year of war, it is time to reassess Israel’s fundamental strategic alternatives and the contrasting views that have figured prominently in the professional disputes, media opinions, and public discourse regarding the war, its trajectory, and continuation since its outbreak.
The tightening of relations between China and Iran is considered one of the main factors preventing the collapse of Iran’s economy, which has been subject to sanctions since the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018. This improvement in relations began at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the two countries signed a long-term cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening their economic ties in the following years. However, in practice, this partnership has been very limited and fundamentally asymmetric. Despite...
In the tenth month of the Swords of Iron war, Israel stands at a crossroads in terms of the continued fighting in the Gaza Strip and the broader campaign against Iran and the “Axis of Resistance,” which are directly involved in the conflict. Every decision about the future will undoubtedly have significant economic consequences, especially considering that the projected budget deficit for 2024 is expected to significantly exceed the forecast underlying the current state budget. This is further compounded by the impact of the war on...
Following the local elections in Turkey at the end of March, which saw President Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party defeated in major cities, Turkey has implemented a series of harsh measures against Israel in response to the war in the Gaza Strip. Some of these measures deviate from Ankara’s previous policies, which had also led to a deterioration in relations between the countries during previous Israeli operations in Gaza. This deviation from past policies necessitates reexamining the bilateral ties and for Israel to...
The war between Israel and Hamas is expected to have a significant negative impact on the Israeli economy. Estimates place the direct cost of the conflict (armament and mobilization of the reserves) and the indirect costs (population evacuation, reconstruction of the western Negev, interruptions to the manufacturing process, and reduced aggregate demand) at around NIS 200 billion. If these predictions are accurate, Israel would experience a 10 percent drop in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2023 and won’t experience any GDP per capita...
Since the Hamas terror attack in the Negev on October 7 and the start of the war in Gaza, there have been escalating attacks by the Houthi terror organization, disrupting navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The stated aim of the organization, one of the most prominent Iranian proxies, is to harass and damage ships linked directly or indirectly to Israel, in response to Israel’s operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. However, most of the Houthi attacks so far have damaged ships that have no link to Israel. In view of the...
