For years, the Arab Gulf states have invested heavily in procuring a wide range of advanced weapons systems. However, recent confrontations with Iran and its proxies highlight the difficulty of translating this investment into an independent, sustained operational capability. The gap stems from personnel constraints, organizational fragmentation, partial interoperability, and dependence on external capabilities and support—as well as the fact that defense procurement serves other objectives, including political, status-related, and...
While global attention has been focused in recent months on Hormuz, the battle over the Arabian Peninsula’s second chokepoint, Bab al-Mandab, is rapidly escalating. The intensifying war in Yemen and the heightened Houthi threat to shipping in the Red Sea no longer constitute a separate arena, but rather another front in the regional war with Iran. Saudi Arabia finds itself in an hour of crisis and extraordinary strategic predicament: Hormuz is disrupted to the east, the East-West pipeline has been damaged, the Houthis are attacking...
The war with Iran has demonstrated that the Strait of Hormuz is a vulnerability not only for energy exports, but also for the connection of the entire Gulf economy to the wider world. Existing alternatives have proven their value, but also their limitations: rerouting Saudi oil to Yanbu increased exposure to Bab al-Mandab, which is under a Houthi blockade; Fujairah provides only a partial solution; there is currently no alternative route for Qatari LNG exports. Therefore, the goal is not to replace Hormuz, but to create an...
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan on August 7, includes a mutual defense clause and links three major Muslim states. The agreement has raised concerns in Israel and other countries, including Greece and India. However, its viability as a close military alliance is questionable due to divergent threat maps, competition for Sunni leadership, and the complex relations that both Turkey and Pakistan maintain with Iran. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal lends the alliance deterrent weight but...
Saudi Arabia seeks to adhere to its détente with Iran while taking a more resolute stance against the Islamic Republic’s proxies. While maintaining channels of dialogue with Tehran, in recent weeks Riyadh has demonstrated a willingness to employ military force against the Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and has even launched a regional security initiative to protect maritime shipping routes in the Red Sea. However, historical experience suggests that Saudi military assertiveness, which the Kingdom has sought to...
The nuclear agreement signed between the United States and Saudi Arabia marks a turning point in American nuclear policy and carries broad implications for the regional security architecture. After years in which Washington conditioned any nuclear cooperation on forgoing fuel-cycle capabilities, it is now adopting a more flexible approach that seeks to manage proliferation risks rather than prevent them entirely. In doing so, the agreement creates a significant precedent and raises questions regarding the future of the Nuclear...
The war with Iran has highlighted Pakistan’s role as an actor with growing potential for influence in the Middle East. Pakistan has sought to position itself both as a mediator between Iran and the United States and as a security guarantor for Saudi Arabia, while maintaining a delicate balance between preserving its strategic ties with Riyadh and the need to avoid a deterioration in relations with Tehran. From the perspective of some Gulf states, Pakistan has an important role to play in the regional security architecture that...
A decade after its launch, Vision 2030 remains the defining framework for Saudi Arabia’s political and economic transformation under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. While the initiative has delivered significant social change and political centralization, its economic achievements remain mixed, and the kingdom continues to rely heavily on oil revenues. The recent regional war with Iran further complicates the project, forcing Riyadh to divert resources toward security and risk management while undermining investor confidence. As a...
The war between Iran, the United States, and Israel has not, so far, improved the strategic position of the Gulf states; in fact, it may have even worsened it. Despite the damage Iran has sustained, the regime has demonstrated resilience while preserving key levers of pressure—namely, the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and to strike “bypass” pipelines and land-based critical infrastructure in the Gulf states. At the same time, in the eyes of the Gulf states, the war has sharpened the limitations of the US...
The war with Iran has placed the Gulf states, against their will, at the heart of the confrontation. Iran identified the Gulf states as an “underbelly” and potential lever of pressure on the United States to shorten the duration of the campaign. Nevertheless, despite the Iranian attacks on their territory, they have thus far refrained from openly joining the campaign and have preferred a cautious policy: allowing other forces to operate from their territory while undertaking limited offensive actions with plausible deniability. This...
Evidence of a shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach toward Israel and the normalization process emerges from an analysis of public opinion in the kingdom, the positions of the Saudi leadership, the intellectual discourse within it, and the diplomatic steps it has taken. This reflects a Saudi effort to shape a new agenda in which distancing from Israel serves both the leadership’s domestic legitimacy and its aspiration to consolidate regional leadership. The implication is not only that Saudi–Israeli normalization is currently off the...
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted in recent years from a close partnership to open competition over leadership, prestige, and regional influence. Behind the façade of “Gulf unity” lies a deep rift stemming from differing threat perceptions and a struggle for economic and regional primacy. The rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi aspiration to lead the Arab world clash with Abu Dhabi’s activist foreign policy, which has sought to free itself from Saudi hegemony. This competition is...
