In the Red Sea region, significant geo-strategic processes have unfolded over the past decade, manifested in political, security, economic, and technological shifts. This area—stretching between the Middle East in the north, the Arabian Peninsula to the east, the Horn of Africa to the south, and East Africa to the west—has become a focal point of both global and regional power struggles. At the same time, it has also generated opportunities for complex civilian and security cooperation. These developments present Israel with a...
The visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington—with the designation of Saudi Arabia as a “major non-NATO ally” at its center—reflected a US effort to lock Riyadh more firmly into the American camp in an era of great-power competition. For the United States, this means deepening the security framework with Saudi Arabia, ensuring major investments and access to advanced technologies, and integrating the move into a regional architecture built around the Abraham Accords and gradual normalization with Israel. This...
The growing involvement of the Gulf states in Africa reflects their aspiration to establish new spheres of influence on the global stage while taking advantage of a window of opportunity created by the somewhat reduced American engagement on the continent. Alongside localized cooperation, the intensifying competition among Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar for influence in Africa is creating friction—notably in Sudan and the Horn of Africa—and reflects a struggle to define the contours of the emerging regional...
A pressing question concerns the extent to which the Gulf states are prepared to send forces to stabilize and rebuild the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which possess significant economic and diplomatic leverage, are setting strict conditions for their involvement: the disarmament of Hamas and the transfer of its powers to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The UAE also demands a fundamental reform of the PA. These conditions may reflect a lack of real willingness to become involved, an understanding that Hamas cannot be...
The recent agreement outlining security guarantees that Pakistan will provide to Saudi Arabia underscores Riyadh’s determination to diversify its strategic safety net. Yet, uncertainty lingers regarding the exact scope and nature of Islamabad’s commitments. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is the prevailing perception that Pakistan might one day be prepared to extend a nuclear umbrella over the kingdom if circumstances demand it. For now, the deal functions less as a binding security framework than as a strategic signal:...
The Abraham Accords are a significant milestone in Israel’s diplomatic history and in its integration into the region. The accords have proven unexpectedly resilient in the face of the war in the Gaza Strip, particularly given the negative public opinion toward Israel in Arab states. In fact, cooperation in the security and economic spheres has even accelerated. While the war has caused considerable damage to the accords, this damage is not irreversible. A gradual restoration of ties—and even an expansion of the accords, potentially...
Sharing the responsibility for rebuilding the Gaza Strip with moderate regional actors, primarily Saudi Arabia and/or the United Arab Emirates, could be a possible solution for the deadlock Israel is facing regarding the war in Gaza. However, the Israeli government is not responding positively to these countries’ demands to present a “day after” plan for the Strip, which is being posed as a prerequisite for sharing the burden. Their willingness to do so is also doubtful due to economic pressures and concerns that investments might...
Since Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rise to power in Syria, Qatar has played a central role in the country’s reconstruction process. With the open support of the United States and coordination with Turkey, Doha has positioned itself as a leading actor in shaping the new Syrian order. It reopened its embassy in Damascus, sent aid, launched infrastructure projects, and invested in the energy, health, and transportation sectors. Combining diplomacy with a “bottom-up” economic strategy, Qatar offers an alternative to other Gulf states regarding...
The very fact that Israeli–Saudi normalization remains on the agenda, indicates that the fundamental motivations of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to advance this goal have not fundamentally changed, even after the momentum toward completing the process was halted by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war. The three main states involved in the process are still striving—each for their own reasons—to bring the negotiations to fruition, with the overarching goal being the shaping of a new regional...
The confrontation between Israel and Iran has seemingly strengthened the Gulf States by weakening Iran, their primary security concern. However, from the perspective of the Gulf States, Iran still has the capability of inflicting significant harm and may even accelerate its nuclear program. Therefore, the Gulf States are unlikely to shift their policy toward Iran and will stick with the détente. At the same time, Israel’s relative strengthening is also viewed with concern. As a result, the Gulf States seek to restore the regional...
The three wealthiest Gulf monarchies—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar—have ceased providing unconditional economic aid to Egypt and Jordan. Instead, they have transitioned to massive acquisitions of strategic assets in both countries, including land and essential infrastructure. This new policy grants the Gulf states direct influence over the Egyptian and Jordanian economies and thus leverage over the domestic and foreign policies of both countries. While this may offer certain advantages to Israel, such as greater...
The IMEC initiative reflects the shifting dynamics of the regional and international system, in which traditional and new players seek to reshape the map of transportation, economy, and geopolitical influence between Asia and Europe. The initiative highlights the economic potential of inter-regional connectivity and also the political complexity it entails—from geopolitical rivalries and infrastructure considerations to diplomatic constraints. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and other actors each seek to...
