Evidence of a shift in Saudi Arabia’s approach toward Israel and the normalization process emerges from an analysis of public opinion in the kingdom, the positions of the Saudi leadership, the intellectual discourse within it, and the diplomatic steps it has taken. This reflects a Saudi effort to shape a new agenda in which distancing from Israel serves both the leadership’s domestic legitimacy and its aspiration to consolidate regional leadership. The implication is not only that Saudi–Israeli normalization is currently off the...
Relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted in recent years from a close partnership to open competition over leadership, prestige, and regional influence. Behind the façade of “Gulf unity” lies a deep rift stemming from differing threat perceptions and a struggle for economic and regional primacy. The rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi aspiration to lead the Arab world clash with Abu Dhabi’s activist foreign policy, which has sought to free itself from Saudi hegemony. This competition is...
The possibility of a military confrontation between the United States and Iran poses weighty dilemmas for the Gulf states. On the one hand, they fear Iranian attacks on energy facilities, water-desalination plants, and US bases on their territory, as well as on oil and gas export routes from the Gulf. On the other hand, they are concerned about the consequences of a collapse of the Iranian regime, whose patterns of behavior are well known. From their perspective, a weakened and restrained Iranian regime is preferable to potential...
In the Red Sea region, significant geo-strategic processes have unfolded over the past decade, manifested in political, security, economic, and technological shifts. This area—stretching between the Middle East in the north, the Arabian Peninsula to the east, the Horn of Africa to the south, and East Africa to the west—has become a focal point of both global and regional power struggles. At the same time, it has also generated opportunities for complex civilian and security cooperation. These developments present Israel with a...
The visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington—with the designation of Saudi Arabia as a “major non-NATO ally” at its center—reflected a US effort to lock Riyadh more firmly into the American camp in an era of great-power competition. For the United States, this means deepening the security framework with Saudi Arabia, ensuring major investments and access to advanced technologies, and integrating the move into a regional architecture built around the Abraham Accords and gradual normalization with Israel. This...
The growing involvement of the Gulf states in Africa reflects their aspiration to establish new spheres of influence on the global stage while taking advantage of a window of opportunity created by the somewhat reduced American engagement on the continent. Alongside localized cooperation, the intensifying competition among Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar for influence in Africa is creating friction—notably in Sudan and the Horn of Africa—and reflects a struggle to define the contours of the emerging regional...
A pressing question concerns the extent to which the Gulf states are prepared to send forces to stabilize and rebuild the Gaza Strip. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which possess significant economic and diplomatic leverage, are setting strict conditions for their involvement: the disarmament of Hamas and the transfer of its powers to the Palestinian Authority (PA). The UAE also demands a fundamental reform of the PA. These conditions may reflect a lack of real willingness to become involved, an understanding that Hamas cannot be...
The recent agreement outlining security guarantees that Pakistan will provide to Saudi Arabia underscores Riyadh’s determination to diversify its strategic safety net. Yet, uncertainty lingers regarding the exact scope and nature of Islamabad’s commitments. What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is the prevailing perception that Pakistan might one day be prepared to extend a nuclear umbrella over the kingdom if circumstances demand it. For now, the deal functions less as a binding security framework than as a strategic signal:...
The Abraham Accords are a significant milestone in Israel’s diplomatic history and in its integration into the region. The accords have proven unexpectedly resilient in the face of the war in the Gaza Strip, particularly given the negative public opinion toward Israel in Arab states. In fact, cooperation in the security and economic spheres has even accelerated. While the war has caused considerable damage to the accords, this damage is not irreversible. A gradual restoration of ties—and even an expansion of the accords, potentially...
Sharing the responsibility for rebuilding the Gaza Strip with moderate regional actors, primarily Saudi Arabia and/or the United Arab Emirates, could be a possible solution for the deadlock Israel is facing regarding the war in Gaza. However, the Israeli government is not responding positively to these countries’ demands to present a “day after” plan for the Strip, which is being posed as a prerequisite for sharing the burden. Their willingness to do so is also doubtful due to economic pressures and concerns that investments might...
Since Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rise to power in Syria, Qatar has played a central role in the country’s reconstruction process. With the open support of the United States and coordination with Turkey, Doha has positioned itself as a leading actor in shaping the new Syrian order. It reopened its embassy in Damascus, sent aid, launched infrastructure projects, and invested in the energy, health, and transportation sectors. Combining diplomacy with a “bottom-up” economic strategy, Qatar offers an alternative to other Gulf states regarding...
The very fact that Israeli–Saudi normalization remains on the agenda, indicates that the fundamental motivations of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States to advance this goal have not fundamentally changed, even after the momentum toward completing the process was halted by Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing war. The three main states involved in the process are still striving—each for their own reasons—to bring the negotiations to fruition, with the overarching goal being the shaping of a new regional...
