In late March 2021, maritime traffic in the Suez Canal was blocked in both directions, after a ship ran aground in the canal. The event exposed the vulnerability of the global trading system, and highlighted the medium and long-term challenges to international transportation of marine cargo in general, and for Egypt in particular. For Israel, the crisis resulting from the obstruction of the Suez Canal showcases its potential for serving as a land bridge between Eilat and the Mediterranean Sea. The Europe Asia Pipeline Company has...
After a decade of civil war, Assad still rules in Syria, but the country’s economy is in ruins, with no recovery on the horizon. Any effort toward reconstruction is contingent on internal stability, removal of the sanctions, and multi-level foreign aid – developments that appear highly unlikely. Syria’s economy is currently functioning on a minimal level, with a small state budget designed to maintain the regime and its mechanisms. Even though the state budget is smaller in real terms than in previous years, Syria is...
The defense budget for 2021 continues the defense budget of 2020, which itself is a continuation of the 2019 defense budget, approved in March 2018. The sequence of continuation budgets constitutes a management failure by the government, which for political reasons has not passed a regular state budget. In this situation, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi has taken upon himself a particularly difficult mission – managing a multi-year plan (the Tnufa plan) that is not backed by a regular defense budget and a multi-year budget agreement,...
The coronavirus crisis has raised public awareness of natural hazards and pushed them to the top of the global risk list. The World Economic Forum in Davos (January 2021) determined that infectious diseases are the highest risk in terms of their impact on the world in the coming year. In the medium term, even after the pandemic is over, the socioeconomic consequences of the coronavirus crisis will remain a leading risk. The forum also highlighted other natural risks, including extreme climate change and man-made environmental damage....
The multilayered COVID-19 crisis – comprising health, economic, social, and governmental dimensions – continues to evolve in the context of much uncertainty, weakens national coping capabilities, and as such harms national security. In Israel there are two elements that amplify the damage of the COVID-19 pandemic: the constitutional-political crisis and the centralization of the public system. These harm governmental legitimacy, form cracks in the contract between the public and the leadership, and erode the ability to cope with the...
The rapid vaccination process raises hope for the decline of the coronavirus pandemic in Israel and for an economic recovery. However, preparations for the recovery phase appear to be quite limited. Despite the tenuous political situation, the government, in cooperation with the relevant elements, must accelerate economic preparations for a recovery period in order to bring about rapid growth of GDP, and in particular, to reduce unemployment and its severe social consequences.
In December 2016, the Knesset approved shortening compulsory military service for men from 32 to 30 months for conscripts who enlist from July 2020. However, the IDF continues to operate according to the 32-month service framework, and based on professional military considerations, seeks to amend the law and restore the 32-month service. According to a Knesset communiqué, the Minister of Defense “has yet to formulate his position on the issue.” An informed response to the IDF’s position must tackle numerous...
On October 17, 2020, Lebanon marked the anniversary of the outbreak of the “October Revolution” with demonstrations that were smaller than those at the outset of the protest, which included hundreds of thousands of people from all communities. One year later – a year marked by a fourfold crisis in Lebanon: economic, political, healthcare, and the port explosion – it appears that at least thus far, the revolution has failed. The calls for reform and change in the political system remain unanswered, and the situation in the country has...
This document was written a number of weeks after the second nationwide lockdown was announced. As expected, the measure succeeded in lowering the infection rate, albeit at a high economic cost and a new spike in unemployment. At the same time, Israel is witnessing rising friction with the ultra-Orthodox community, more extensive public protests, and diminishing public trust in the authorities, related in part to the government’s problematic handling of the multilayered crisis.
The purpose of this document is to propose an...
The peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and the declaration of peace between Israel and Bahrain (the Abraham Accords) represent the first step in a regional peace process since the peace treaty with Jordan, and an opening for other Arab countries to join the trend of normalization with Israel. The agreements are founded on national security considerations and sharp awareness of the shared Iranian threat and the countries’ common ally, the United States. At the same time, these agreements also embody economic...
Israel has lost control over the spread of coronavirus, and the government has decided to impose a second nation-wide lockdown. The economic and social crisis caused by the virus affects a large group of people, especially among the middle class working in the private sector. The impact of the crisis on healthcare, the economy, and society is also affected by political instability, erratic management, and non-compliance with the regulations among some of the public. The Covid-19 virus is a natural disaster, but to a large extent the...
Concern that a president could be elected in part due to the influence of a foreign country has made combating such intervention in the campaign a top priority for the American intelligence community. However, the specific counterintelligence challenge is difficult and politically sensitive. One of the ways that the US intelligence community has chosen to deal with this danger is by increasing the public’s awareness of foreign attempts to exert influence. As part of this effort, announcements have been issued citing certain...
