Recent developments indicate a shift in Turkey’s strategic outlook, which dovetails with intensive activity by Russia and China – each for its own reasons – in the Western-Asian-East European sphere, raising the possibility of long term change with extensive consequences that include ramifications for Israel. Turkey has demonstrated increased distance from the United States and the European Union on several core issues, with the most important among them the procurement – despite the objections of the US and...
The sweeping victory of opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) over Binali Yildrim of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the repeat election forced on Istanbul voters was impressive in terms of the percentage of votes won by Imamoglu, compared to percentages in previous municipal elections in Istanbul in recent decades. Whereas the gap between Imamoglu and Yildrim was below 1 percent in the March 2019 election, in the June election it was more than 9 percent. The decision to force a repeat...
The results of the local elections held in Turkey on March 31, 2019 dealt a substantive political blow to the AKP (the Justice and Development Party), which since its founding has been led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Noteworthy indications of this are the victory of the opposition candidate in Ankara and the AKP’s demand for a sweeping recount in Istanbul as a challenge to the opposition’s victory in the city, and even calls for new elections. Though from an historical perspective the AKP has garnered ample victories at the...
The INSS 12th annual international conference addressed the web of challenges and opportunities Israel faces at the start of 2019. As in previous years, we chose strategic issues from the different spheres – domestic, regional, and international – that make up Israel’s strategic reality, and examine these individually and in context of one another. Continuing a trend from our previous conferences, we approached Israel’s national security priorities critically from a variety of perspectives.
Turkey’s insistence to move ahead with the S-400 deal with Russia, in spite of the American threat that this move would be met with sanctions, is expected to create a rift in relations between Turkey and the United States and the other allies in NATO. Reactions to this move by the administration and Congress are likely to be strong. Apart from the significance for the relations between the two countries, the Turkish step will have geopolitical implications, both in the context of the balance of power between the United States and...
The dynamic evident when President Donald Trump commented on the annual risk assessment prepared by the US intelligence community, seen also following the President’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, reflects the President’s current modus operandi vis-à-vis his administration. Processes unfold along two parallel tracks: on the one hand, using Tweets, the President promotes a policy that matches his approach on any given issue; on the other hand, administration systems are poised to minimize damage and provide...
The Palestinian political system is currently mired in a deep crisis owing to a host of intertwined and mutually reinforcing factors. The focal point is the crisis pertaining to the Gaza Strip and the serious deterioration there over the past year. In the current reality, there is no magic formula on the horizon to dispel the political, security, and humanitarian problems of the Strip and counter their negative implications for Israel’s relations with the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian political system is keenly mindful...
The eighth issue of Over the Net deals at length with the affair that has taken the Arab world and the international arena by storm since October 2018, the murder and disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The man himself, the reasons behind his murder, and the details of the murder have combined to create a fascinating story that caused passionate discussions, first and foremost about Saudi Arabia and its (acting) leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and also about Turkey, the United States, and freedom of the press...
The release of Pastor Andrew Brunson from prison in Turkey is not a magical cure for the severe crisis that has characterized US-Turkish relations for over a year. At the same time, it attests to the fact that Turkey can be pressured, and it points to Ankara’s weak points – first and foremost, in the economic realm. Brunson’s arrest was only one of a large number of bones of contention between the United States and Turkey, and similar to the release of Brunson, possible means of bridging the gaps on other specific issues can also be...
The seventh issue of Over the Net looks at trends across the Arab world. The first part focuses on the discourse, albeit limited, about the three non-Arab countries in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Turkey. A thorough examination suggests that for various reasons, and possibly contrary to common assumptions, Arab citizens regard none of the three countries as an existential threat, in comparison with domestic problems or regional issues, such as the struggle against radical Sunni Islam and political Islam. The publication then...
Two developments of recent weeks threaten to reduce significantly the possibility of exporting Israel’s natural gas. One is Erdogan’s victory in the Turkish elections and the expansion of his powers, which reduce and perhaps eliminate the chances of an underwater gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey. The second is (unverified) initial reports regarding new gas reserves off the coast of Egypt*, which threaten the existing deal to export gas from Israel to Egypt, as well as Israel’s plan to make use of Egypt’s liquefaction...
The decline in both the rule of law and the adherence to democratic norms in Turkey has made it easier for the EU to keep Ankara at a distance than was previously the case. Talks of future EU accession have become altogether symbolic and the substance of even the so-called “privileged partnership” is being hollowed out to cover limited areas of strategic significance. However, neither side is willing or able to abandon the other entirely. The existence of both pull and the push factors in Turkey-EU relations can explain why there are...
