The abduction of some 80 Turkish citizens in Iraq by Islamic State (IS, formerly known as ISIS) militants and their affiliates symbolizes the major potential dangers of the current turmoil in the Middle East to Turkey’s security, economy, and trade relations, as well as to its regional influence. Turkey would like Iraq to remain a unified state. However, it cannot afford the strengthening of IS in Iraq, since it threatens Turkey’s dominance in northern Iraq. Turkey has gained much from the burgeoning relations with the Kurdish...
Following the seizure of main Iraqi cities by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), there has been much discussion about possible US military intervention in Iraq. The official White House statement highlights the clear reluctance of the President to send the American troops to another round of fighting in the bloody Middle East. Nevertheless, the situation raises the question of US military preparedness for intervention of this kind if the administration decides in the future that the interests of the US or its allies warrant...
The success by ISIS in Iraq is a failure for Iran, which in recent years has become the most important and influential external actor in Iraq, particularly since the withdrawal of US forces in late 2011. Iran’s goal in Iraq was to build a weak and non-threatening but stable and unified country, dependent on Iran and led by a Shiite majority connected to Iran. To this end, Iran used its ties with many Shiite elements in Iraq, and nurtured these connections through military and financial aid. This influence had limits, but in all,...
Several factors are at the base of the military success of ISIS and other jihadist organizations: the structural and functional weaknesses of Arab nation states; the organizations’ networked and decentralized structure, which makes it easier for them to operate and sustain themselves in the region; the ineffectiveness of the international community, first and foremost the United States, stemming from the lack of a solution to the problem and an unwillingness to become militarily involved; and the erosion of the United States’ image...
Recent events in Iraq are liable to give new impetus to the ideas and the path that ISIS represents, which are shared by many terrorist organizations operating in the Middle East and beyond. Its strong economic capacity could be exploited to support and acquire influence over the operations of terrorist organizations that share its ideas. In addition, enormous quantities of high quality weapons, many of them Western, have fallen into ISIS hands, and they will certainly find their way to terrorist organizations operating in combat...
The fall of major Iraqi cities to Sunni extremists belonging to the Sunni group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) may well have implications beyond the borders of Iraq. Indeed, all of Iraq’s neighbors, as well as the United States, have cause for major worry about the immediate and long term implications of the recent developments. Paradoxically, a coalition of sorts has formed comprising countries that have an interest in nipping the ISIS territorial entrenchment in the bud. While the United States will need to take the leading...
Betweenthe start of suicide bombings in the recent past, carried out by Hizbollah inLebanon in the early 1980s, and the beginning of the twenty-first century, some200 suicide attacks took place around the world. A dramatic increase in suicideterrorism around the world began in early 2000, and overall some 3,500 suicideattacks have taken place over the last three decades. The reverberations of theSeptember 11 attacks led to a significant increase in the role played byterrorist organizations identified with al-Qaeda and global...
2013 was the most violent year inIraq since 2008, a reminder that the war for Iraq is far from over. The latestoutbreak of violence in Anbar Province follows the dismantling of a Sunniprotest tent and the arrest of a Sunni member of parliament, in the course ofwhich the MP’s brothers and five bodyguards were killed. The recent outbreak ofviolence in Anbar Province is not only serious in and of itself, but is also asymptom of several illnesses of the Iraqi state, and is primarily connected to theSunnis’ anger at their ejection...
The disclosure of political corruption ofunprecedented proportions in Turkey’s history has catapulted the country into astate of major political upheaval. So far, the response of Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan has consisted of counterattack and statements attributing theexposé to a network of domestic and international elements interested intoppling his party’s rule. He has even attacked alleged provocations by foreignambassadors in Turkey and threatened to expel them. In practice, however,Turkey’s foreign policy, at least...
The potential impact of refugees on economic,security, and political stability is a familiar challenge in the Middle East.Past wars in the region have led hundreds of thousands of people to migrate and in many cases to remain as permanent residents in their new locations,which in turn affects the political and demographic balance of the hostcountries. So too, the events of recent years in Syria, Libya, and Yemen have promptedwaves of refugees that are likely to threaten the internal stability ofcountries that have thus far managed to...
Although the formal map of the Middle Easthas not changed since the onset of the so-called Arab Spring (with theexception of Sudan), the old borders do not reflect the reality on the ground.As a result of the regional upheavals, tribal, sectarian, and ethnic identitieshave become more pronounced than ever, which may well lead to a change in theborders drawn by the colonial powers a century ago that have since beenpreserved by Arab autocrats. The changes to date have occurred inside theexisting borders, but this may change. States are...
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS and outside researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and the opportunities that await Israel in 2013. The chief issues are: the Iranian nuclear threat; renewal of the politcal process with the Palestinians; preservation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan; the increasing instability among Israel’s neighbors, especially Syria; and preservation of Israel’s international stature.
