There has been a significant rise in COVID-19 infection rates in Arab communities in Israel, along with increasing awareness of the challenges of the pandemic and a higher level of adherence to Ministry of Health regulations, which followed widespread distribution of Arabic-language explanatory materials. The month of Ramadan, which is commonly celebrated with large public gatherings, demands sharpened awareness and particular preparations regarding information dissemination, enforcement of health regulations, and urgent provision of...
The coronavirus crisis presents Egypt with a host of challenges, given its large, densely-packed population, an economy exposed to global shockwaves, and a fragile health system. As it continues, the crisis will likely exacerbate Egypt’s financial struggles and endanger its political stability. Those most vulnerable to the virus’ economic effects are the millions of irregular workers who have no social benefits and who are likely to slide quickly into unemployment and poverty. As such, the benchmark for the Egyptian government in...
Even if there is an effective medical response to the coronavirus soon, it will take many months, or even years, before the Middle East emerges from the economic crisis that has afflicted it and other regions since early 2020. The coronavirus crisis is in effect the new calamity following the decade of the “Arab Spring,” which severely undermined political and economic stability in a number of countries in the region and left 10 million refugees, mainly in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. Israel is capable of handling its own...
What will the world look like one year from now, and how will the corona pandemic affect the Middle East? This article presents four possible scenarios: “continuation,” in which following a temporary interruption of a few months, there is a resumption of familiar global and regional trends from the pre-corona era; “revolution,” in which there is a fundamental change in the patterns that characterized life before the crisis and the world prepares for a new illiberal world order led by China; “breakdown,” in which all global actors...
The proposed strategies for exiting the coronavirus crisis have urged the continued isolation of at-risk population groups, including people aged 65-70 and older. The main argument raised is protection of “the elderly,” as the virus is particularly dangerous for this sector. Another argument addresses the threat to the healthcare system, should it be overloaded with elderly patients in serious condition. However, there are weighty considerations that counter the arguments for continued isolation of senior citizens. For the elderly...
The coronavirus is not about to vanish from our lives, so the quest for a one-shot silver bullet in the form of an “exit strategy” is dangerously misguided. Instead, we will have to learn to manage our lives as individuals, families, and workers under the constraints of the coronavirus; the same applies to running the country, the economy, and other aspects of society. We therefore must build an organizational structure for the sustained management of the crisis, which will include a wide range of governmental, civic, and...
A survey of the involvement of democratic nations’ militaries in the anti-coronavirus campaign identifies five, escalating levels of action: (A) logistical and medical support for agencies serving civilians; (B) transfer of military supplies and equipment to civilian networks; (C) assistance to police forces in maintaining order; (D) assumption of operative responsibility for the management of individual civilian networks; (E) direct management of the entire system of governance. The IDF is required to assist the country’s civilians...
The current phase of Israel’s battle against the coronavirus focuses on curbing the spread of the pandemic and “flattening the curve” of serious illness, to prevent overloading the health service—which could lead to its collapse and to very high mortality levels. Like the thinking underlying Israel’s national security concept, the defensive alone will not lead to victory. The policy proposed here is based on three principles that differentiate it from the policy of the containment phase: (a) The main effort will move from containing...
Following the containment stage of the corona pandemic, Israel will be called upon to launch an economic and social recovery. That stage must be based on differential, nonlinear, and flexible management of the “emergency routine,” while gradually expanding functional continuity according to the sectors and population groups who from a health perspective can return to work, even if in limited format. While this policy incurs many risks, including a descent into uncontrolled infection, intelligent management through precise planning,...
A war game simulating a large scale outbreak of the coronavirus in the Gaza Strip underscored that Israel has no way to prevent a spread of the pandemic in Gaza, but it can take steps to alleviate the situation. Among the principal proposals: Israel should already transfer vital medical aid to the Gaza Strip; work with the World Health Organization and other relief agencies to mobilize medical resources for the area; avoid obstructing any initiative to establish an emergency government by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas; and...
Turkey reported its first coronavirus case relatively late, but since early April it has figured among the ten countries with the highest numbers of confirmed cases. It seems that economic considerations in Ankara still trump ideas on addressing the epidemic more effectively, even though in many other countries it is understood that without controlling the extent of the disease, the economy will suffer critical damage. Internal political considerations, in particular an effort to try and obstruct actions of mayors from opposition...
Current medical policy is focused on the immediate struggle against the coronavirus. At the same time, however, the public health care system should plan and manage risks for the next stage, following the gradual exit from the current near-complete lockdown. The winter of 2020-21 may well be particularly challenging, when there may be a resurgence in coronavirus infections and a vaccine against the virus will likely not be ready. In this context, there should be a comprehensive campaign to vaccinate the population against influenza...
