When states and organizations crave good news in the area of nuclear proliferation prevention, they may be wont to ignore the bare facts or misinterpret them in an optimistic vein. This in turn creates a sense that there is still time in which to effectively stop the production of fissile materials for the production of nuclear weapons.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently concluded a two-day trip to Lebanon (October 14 and 15, 2010). While there he paid a visit both to high officials of the Lebanese state, as well as to leaders and grassroots supporters of the Islamic Republic’s main local ally, Hizbollah. This trip, the first official visit by the Iranian president to Lebanon since 2005, provided the occasion for the Lebanese and the Iranian governments to sign seventeen documents on bilateral cooperation, strengthening the Lebanese-Iranian...
The beginning of the new Jewish year is a good time to take a fresh look at the developing situation regarding the Iranian nuclear project. This project is progressing steadily, albeit at a rather slow rate. This rate is misleading, giving the false impression that there is still ample time to prevent Iran from becoming a de facto nuclear weapons state. From the US previous assessment that Iran still has a long way to go, it now says that it could take at least a year until Iran achieves a nuclear capability, if it makes “a dash” for...
In recent weeks, hundreds of opposition leaders have been arrested on suspicion of conspiring against the rulers of Bahrain. Official reports claim that the suspects belong to a Shiite terrorist network that intended to overthrow the al-Khalifah family. The royal family, perhaps in order to fend off criticism, sought to give the recent tension a regional slant, claiming that the accused were in contact with foreign governments, i.e., Iran. These events invite examination of Bahrain as a test case of the ability to promote even basic...
Every day for a full week beginning August 20, as part of the Government Achievement Week festivities, the Iranian media reported the unveiling of new weapon systems. That week Iran also celebrated the insertion of fuel rods into the nuclear power plant in Bushehr. In all probability, the events were reported at the same time to impress the world with Iran’s ability to progress and grow stronger in the fields it considers important despite the sanctions against it.
Iran’s oft-sounded threats to close the Straits of Hormuz to international shipping and thereby stop the flow of Gulf oil seem to have increased in frequency and intensity, apparently in light of the decision to impose harsher sanctions against Iran. Senior Iranian officials have thus warned that “any act of aggression or adventure” – in practice this means inspections of cargoes of Iranian ships (a step included in the Security Council resolution on Iran) – would generate an “appropriate” Iranian response and turn the Straits into...
August 21, 2010 marked the official inauguration in Bushehr of Iran’s first nuclear power plant, which was built by Russia. It seems that this event finally put an end to the drawn-out ordeal, which in recent years has been used as leverage for international pressure on Iran and has been riddled with question marks. The plant’s inauguration was marked by a celebratory ceremony attended by Iran’s vice president and head of its atomic energy organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, and the head of Russia’s atomic agency (ROSATOM), Sergei...
Over the course of July 2010, a few voices in the United States called for a reassessment of a military option against Iran. Some of these figures refused to identify themselves by name, suggesting that they are part of the security or political establishment. Some former senior officials, however, did identify themselves by name. Most notable among them was the former head of the CIA, General Michael Hayden, who explicitly stated in an interview with CNN that an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is not the United States’...
“Ahmadinejad’s Iran” – and I use that term because I want to distinguish it from the people and the publics of Iran, who are the targets of massive domestic repression – is the most comprehensive, compelling, and generic security challenge that the world is currently facing.
For a military option to be adopted against the Iranian nuclear program, four different questions demand clear answers. The first concerns the scenario: what scenario will we be living in, especially in 2010? The second deals with the result of a strategic situation assessment, which weighs the risk of living with an Iranian bomb against the risk of trying to prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb. Third, what will the American policy towards Iran be? And the fourth is the purely military issue. I will attempt to focus primarily on the...
A nuclear bomb in Iran does not represent an existential threat to Israel. First, the likelihood that it would be used against us is close to nil. Anyone who has followed the Iranian regime knows that it behaves rationally, and it wouldn’t dare attack Israel with a nuclear missile, given that in its mind Israel is armed to the gills with nuclear weapons.
This address will focus on three interconnected topics: the American struggle against Iran; Israeli-Palestinian relations; and the effect of the Goldstone report on the future of war.
