There is no doubt that Iran is quite concerned about events in Syria and the possibility that the Assad regime will be toppled. Since the Islamic Revolution, Iran has not had any real ally, among the superpowers or in the region, other than Syria. The alliance between Iran and Syria has lasted more than thirty years, the longest alliance between any two states in the region in the last few decades. Syria is a key component in Iran’s security doctrine, as it is a principal arena in the struggle against Israel, the United States, and...
We can define “red lines” as acts, activities, or situations that if carried out or reached mandate actions to redress the situation. The purpose of drawing these lines is twofold: to deter these acts or activities, and to judge that the situation is serious enough to warrant reactions. Red lines, virtual or real, have been drawn in the past as part of strategies to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue. These lines were defined and later crossed without any action taken – other than verbal.
This article will examine various aspects of maritime enforcement and prevention methods in the context of Iran, first and foremost a naval blockade, for the purpose of stepping up pressure to thwart proliferation of non-conventional weapons. In addition, it will discuss the ramifications of these enforcement and prevention measures and the relevant alternatives available to the international community.
Israel’s strategic environment of mid 2012 differs significantly from that of a few years ago. In the current environment, the military force application that Israel is liable to need differs in purpose, constraints, and the accompanying military-political interface from the force application of the past. The purpose of this article is to discuss some of the particular characteristics of force application in this contemporary environment.
Over the past year tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan have increased. Temporary closures of border crossings, attempted Iranian terrorist attacks on Azerbaijan’s territory, ambassadors called home for “consultations,” arrests of citizens of the other country for no convincing reason, and a stepped-up Iranian naval presence in the Caspian Sea are just some of the signs of this tension. This rise in tension should be analyzed through both short and long term perspectives. Relations between the two countries have been strained since...
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Iranian President Ahmadinejad met in Mecca last week at an emergency summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which decided to suspend Syria’s membership in the organization. This decision is mainly symbolic, but Ahmadinejad’s participation at the OIC meeting on Saudi soil at this time was as surprising as was the invitation itself. Ahmadinejad, who headed a delegation of senior officials, had visited Saudi Arabia previously (December 2005 and March 2007), but given the events...
The deadly terrorist attack in Burgas, Bulgaria, which killed five Israeli tourists and one Bulgarian citizen, is part of a combined, planned, and ongoing terror campaign waged by Iran and Hizbollah in the international arena over the last year against Israeli and Jewish targets. The immediate background is the desire for revenge and the drive to create a balance of terror against Israel in light of what Iran and Hizbollah see as Israel’s campaign against them. Nevertheless, the central question is whether behind this deliberate...
Until Mubarak’s ouster, Egypt, which viewed the Islamic Revolution as a threat to its regime, was a central link in the axis of anti-Iran Arab nations. The more than 30 years following the Khomeini revolution were marked by hostility between Egypt and Iran and the lack of diplomatic relations between them. Sadat’s Egypt was willing to grant asylum to the deposed shah, and the Islamic Republic of Iran honored Sadat’s assassin by naming a Tehran street after him. After Mubarak’s fall, various political elements in “the new...
Although for the most part the Arab Spring has not had a major impact on countries that over the past twenty years have experienced extended civil war or deep internal polarization, Yemen is a notable exception. The civil unrest that has gripped the nation since January 2011, inspired by the upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world, has intensified existing trends and accelerated processes liable to lead to state failure. The hope had been that Saleh’s resignation as president would contain the Yemeni revolution and, more importantly,...
The Istanbul-Baghdad-Moscow talks on Iran’s nuclear program are over. As expected, they did not achieve anything of significance, besides deciding on further, lower level talks. Indeed, the P5+1 and the Iranian delegations shared one objective: they did not want the process to end, thereby necessitating a decision on different tacks. The Iranians are successfully playing for time, as they have done for so many years, and the members of the P5+1 group are also trying to delay any inconvenient decisions, each group member for its own...
The starting point for any analysis of the legality of an armed attack by Israel or the US against Iranian nuclear facilities must be the UN Charter prohibition against “the threat or use of force.” The UN Charter provides explicitly for only two exceptions to the prohibition against use of force. The first exception is if the use of force is authorized by the UN Security Council acting within its powers under Chapter VII of the Charter. It can be assumed with high certainty that China and Russia would veto any proposal...
No one who attended the May 29-30, 2012 INSS conference “Security Challenges of the 21st Century: Israel’s Search for Opportunities in a Turbulent Region” could have failed to come away with the impression that Israel is nearing the point at which it will have to make a decision on the Iranian nuclear question. The statements made by the Prime Minister, the Defense Minister, and Deputy Prime Minister Ya’alon left no room for doubt that time is quickly running out. Their remarks offered a clear glimpse at the...
