President Obama’s upcoming visit to Israel, along with the formation of a new Israeli government, is an opportunity for the United States and Israel to formulate a joint strategy toward the challenges of the Middle East. The two countries view the main issues in the region – the Iranian nuclear crisis, the war in Syria, the Palestinian issue, developments in Egypt, and the Israel-Turkey crisis – with concern. Israel’s Prime Minister must take advantage of President Obama’s visit to formulate a joint strategy for coping with the...
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS and outside researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and the opportunities that await Israel in 2013. The chief issues are: the Iranian nuclear threat; renewal of the politcal process with the Palestinians; preservation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan; the increasing instability among Israel’s neighbors, especially Syria; and preservation of Israel’s international stature.
The concept of a “year of decision” has become a cliche, and should not be used to describe 2013. Nevertheless, a very challenging spring and summer await Israel in 2013: important and fateful processes have reached a stage in which courageous decisions are needed to change negative trends. The Iranian nuclear weapons program, the stability of the peace treaties, the internal struggle in Syria, and renewal of the political process with the Palestinians require a precise and measured combination of a cautious policy that...
Two types of considerations can cause external parties to contemplate military intervention. The first involves humanitarian considerations, with the drive to prevent atrocities and harm to innocent civilians. These considerations wield much influence amng public opinion. The second type consists of strategic considerations by the parties contemplating intervention. Both sets of considerations, however, are always weighed against the cost of action for the intervening arties and the likelihood of realization of the goals of the...
This article will analyze whether there are any signs of a new game with Iran, or whether what we have witnessed over the past year is basically a repeat of what we have seen so many times before, and as such is simply “more of the same.” The article will present and analyze these alternative interpretations of international efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions over the past year, beginning with the release of the IAEA report on Iran in early November 2011.
In his second term, the United States President will have to chart a compromise between two major courses of action in the Middle East. There will be much temptation in the US administration to maintain the relatively detached course of the previous term, but it is highly likely that the US will be forced to become more deeply engaged and involved than some in Washington, and in the Middle East, would like.
After several weeks in which the three state conveners of the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction-free zone (WMDFZ) conference failed to reach a joint position on postponement of the conference, the United States, Britain, and Russia issued separate announcements reflecting their different perspectives on the reasons for the delay, and the conditions and timeline for getting the conference on track. This article examines the reasons for the failure to convene the gathering, analyzes who wins and who loses from the postponement,...
Israel has had to take international factors into account in all of its military engagements with its neighbors. It seems, however, that the political sensitivity to regional circumstances that Israel must exercise in Operation Pillar of Defense in Gaza exceeds any level of political sensitivity required of Israel in previous military encounters.
Much has been written about President Obama’s reelection in terms of his attitude toward Israel in general and Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular. First, there is an assumption that the difficult relationship between the two leaders will assume greater weight during Obama’s second term: once Obama no longer need worry about reelection he can freely express his reservations about Netanyahu without incurring a steep political price, and “take revenge” for unwelcome “behavior” during the President’s...
INSS held a war game (simulation) focusing on the first 48 hours after an Israeli aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructures. When the simulation was planned, it appeared that this fall season would be a critical period, and therefore it was decided to examine possible developments subsequent to an Israeli attack. The scenario of an Israeli attack immediately after the US elections does not reflect the position of INSS. Moreover, the sense of an imminent decision has abated somewhat, but after the US and Israeli elections, the...
According to a report published in the New York Times, Iran has agreed to begin direct talks with the US administration about its nuclear program after the US elections next month. Although the report was denied by both the White House and the Iranian Foreign Minister, the White House spokesperson made it clear that the Obama administration is open to direct talks with Iran about its military nuclear program, and it should come as no surprise if after the elections such a process ensues. Leading figures at US research institutes...
President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney met on stage on Monday night, October 22, 2012, for their foreign policy debate. The headline was clear: continuity and consensus on the fundamentals of US policy. Neither candidate charted a grand new course for US policy. Neither declared he would attack Iranian nuclear sites or push for peace on the Palestinian track. Rather, both appealed to the consensus in US public opinion that has led to a reluctance to use force and to a slow disengagement from the...
