Within just a few short weeks, using a sophisticated, complex, low cost move, Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s new president, succeeded in changing the rules of the Iranian nuclear game. The change consists of two interdependent aspects: an historic breakthrough to direct dialogue with the United States at the very highest echelons, and the projection of a more moderate approach that can – according to Rouhani and the United States – resolve differences and lead to an agreement on the nuclear issue within a short time. The relationship...
The final weekend of September 2013 saw the Iranian charm school at work in full force, with a campaign comprising every component of a sophisticated public diplomacy strategy. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who flew to the US for talks with President Obama and a speech at the UN General Assembly, faces a tough mission: on the one hand, he must not paint himself into a corner and become the obstacle to an agreement, i.e., the party that is oblivious to the changes in the international arena and is unwavering in...
The Revolutionary Guards are significantly involved in the international drug trade, both directly and through proxies. This involvement provides the organization with access to sources of financing that bypass international sanctions, as well as to sophisticated operational platforms that support its subversive efforts aimed at the West. For Iran’s enemies, and especially to Israel, the link between a global, sophisticated, and determined organization as the Revolutionary Guards and the world of organized crime is a phenomenon that...
Reports flowing to Israel and the West about the Iranian economy and the challenge of the sanctions indicate not just ongoing deterioration, but suggest impending catastrophe. Does this information reflect a realistic, balanced view of the situation? In fact, even if the sanctions cause significant damage to the Iranian economy, in practice the vast reserves of foreign currency and gold and the tremendous cumulative surpluses in Iran’s balance of payments of 2012-2013 will allow Iran from early 2014 to maintain its nuclear...
From statements by senior Israeli officials on the Iranian nuclear program, it can be understood that if and when it becomes clear that no choice exists other than military action against Iran, Israel believes that such action would be better carried out by the US and not by Israel. As far as Israel is concerned, this option has many advantages over independent Israeli action. At the same time, Israel must take into account the possible negative results of this course of action.
The election of Hassan Rowhani as Iran’s president is surprising, not only in the very fact of his election, but particularly in the large majority he received – 50.7 percent of the vote – which made a second round of voting unnecessary. Of all the candidates, Rowhani, though not a leader of the reformist camp, is closest to the reformers, and he is their main hope. Rowhani’s election has been welcomed by the US administration and other Western governments, which expect that his presidency will allow real progress on the...
The article presents a case study that outlines one possible scenario for future U.S.-Israeli decision making on Iran’s nuclear program. Given the spectrum of other available options, military force should only be employed against the program as a last resort. Yet the military option must still be credible, and ready to use if necessary. The authors discuss ten leading points that will be debated by the Israeli and U.S. leaders if they both agree that the time has come to ready their contingency options for a military strike...
President Obama has affirmed unequivocally that his policy regarding Iran’s nuclear advances is a policy of prevention, not containment, and during his visit to Israel in March of this year he reiterated that the US will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Since prevention became official US policy, however, voices both in Israel and abroad have expressed doubts as to whether the President could be trusted on this count. This article examines the confusion about US policy on Iran that goes to Obama’s ability to...
The past few weeks have witnessed a sharp escalation in North Korean nuclear and conventional threats directed primarily against South Korea and the United States, but also against Japan. For the first time, North Korea issued an explicit threat of a nuclear attack to the United States. The frequency, intensity, and content of these threats – unfolding in rapid succession – are unprecedented in the near-decade of negotiations with North Korea in the nuclear realm. What is North Korea trying to achieve, and what does this...
The final week of February 2013 was marked by events that may have changed the perception of Iran’s nuclear program and the chances of finding a non-belligerent solution to this problem. First, the periodic IAEA report on the inspections in Iran was published, with some new details on Iran’s nuclear activities. A careful reading of the latest IAEA report reveals that Iran continues relentlessly to further the potential to break out and achieve a nuclear weapons capability quickly. Second, the 2-day talks between the P5+1 and Iran in...
Against the background of the international drive to negotiate a deal between Iran and the United States and/or the P5+1 over Iran’s nuclear program, this article outlines a possible agreement based on the components considered critical to both sides. A viable agreement would include elements essential to each side, as well as elements that guarantee critical interests of the other side. From Israel’s perspective, such an agreement is not good news, because it does not, once and for all, put an end to the Iranian military nuclear...
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS and outside researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and the opportunities that await Israel in 2013. The chief issues are: the Iranian nuclear threat; renewal of the politcal process with the Palestinians; preservation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan; the increasing instability among Israel’s neighbors, especially Syria; and preservation of Israel’s international stature.
