The Palestinian protests and the clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces of recent weeks have led to speculation whether Israel is on the verge of a third intifada. However, this question should be raised not only because of recent events, but also due to the basic state of relations between Israel and the Palestinians and the crisis of government in the Palestinian Authority. A review of the situation suggests three conclusions. One, it is essential to seize the opportunity of President Obama’s visit and the...
Four EU member nations that are also members of the UN Security Council – Great Britain, France, Germany, and Portugal – joined forces, and on December 19, 2012 issued a statement criticizing the Israeli government decision to accelerate settlement construction in “the occupied territories.” According to their statement, issued after the Security Council debated the matter earlier that day but failed (due to American opposition) to issue a joint statement of condemnation, Israel’s decision sends a...
The book includes thirteen analytical essays written by INSS and outside researchers. Focus is on Israel’s strategic environment, particularly the challenges and the opportunities that await Israel in 2013. The chief issues are: the Iranian nuclear threat; renewal of the politcal process with the Palestinians; preservation of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan; the increasing instability among Israel’s neighbors, especially Syria; and preservation of Israel’s international stature.
The concept of a “year of decision” has become a cliche, and should not be used to describe 2013. Nevertheless, a very challenging spring and summer await Israel in 2013: important and fateful processes have reached a stage in which courageous decisions are needed to change negative trends. The Iranian nuclear weapons program, the stability of the peace treaties, the internal struggle in Syria, and renewal of the political process with the Palestinians require a precise and measured combination of a cautious policy that...
The political freeze postpones the moment when Israel and the Palestinians, with their respective leaderships and publics, will have to take decisions with immediate social and electoral significance and long term security consequences. In tandem, however, the threats in Israel’s immediate and more distant surroundings alike have intensified, and impede it from fashioning for itself a more comfortable strategic environment.
In his second term, the United States President will have to chart a compromise between two major courses of action in the Middle East. There will be much temptation in the US administration to maintain the relatively detached course of the previous term, but it is highly likely that the US will be forced to become more deeply engaged and involved than some in Washington, and in the Middle East, would like.
The essays by INSS researchers compiled in this volume offer initial assessments of various aspects of Operation Pillar of Defense, launched by Israel in November 2012. Part I of the collection focuses primarily on military and strategic issues, including the importance of the civilian front and the new “hero” of the operation, the Iron Dome system. Part II is devoted to the political ramifications of the operation, focusing in particular on the roles played by the United States and the new Egyptian regime, and the...
On November 29, 2012, the United Nations General Assembly approved the Palestinian request for recognition of Palestine as a non-member “observer” state. With the UN recognition, the Palestinians are able to seek participation in international organizations and treaties open only to states. In addition, they are able to ask the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate allegations of war crimes in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. It is unlikely, however, that the General Assembly’s recognition of a...
Amidst – or perhaps immediately after – the war in Gaza, international attention refocused on the Israeli-Palestinian political arena. On November 29, 2012 the PLO under Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is likely to request a United Nations vote on international recognition of Palestine as a “non-member state” (“permanent observer”) of the United Nations, resuming the statehood initiative that began last year. The date marks the anniversary of the 1947 General Assembly resolution on the partition...
Two Palestinian documents recently made public deserve attention: the Palestinian request for non-member state status at the United Nations General Assembly, and the speech made by President Abu Mazen on November 11, 2012 at the ceremony marking the death of Yassir Arafat eight years ago.
Israel has had to take international factors into account in all of its military engagements with its neighbors. It seems, however, that the political sensitivity to regional circumstances that Israel must exercise in Operation Pillar of Defense in Gaza exceeds any level of political sensitivity required of Israel in previous military encounters.
