This article presents a balance of Israel’s strategic security situation, and suggests that the current balance is generally positive. It maps the security challenges and considers how Israel can best deal with the challenges before it, while arresting negative trends and taking advantage of opportunities to stabilize and enhance the positive aspects of the balance. The analysis features a multidisciplinary approach, examining the interface between the various challenges through an integrated look at political, diplomatic, social,...
The disclosure of political corruption ofunprecedented proportions in Turkey’s history has catapulted the country into astate of major political upheaval. So far, the response of Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan has consisted of counterattack and statements attributing theexposé to a network of domestic and international elements interested intoppling his party’s rule. He has even attacked alleged provocations by foreignambassadors in Turkey and threatened to expel them. In practice, however,Turkey’s foreign policy, at least...
Since thesigning of the Geneva agreement, the P5+1 leaders, especially President Obama,have made numerous statements that challenge the very idea of a military optionagainst Iran as a realistic option. Evidenced by the conduct of the P5+1 states– even if this was not their intention – Iran is now presented as a countryincreasingly integrated into the family of nations and as an element that willhelp resolve the crisis, more than as the country responsible for the crisis inthe first place. The strategic significance of this...
The interim deal signedin Geneva by the P5+1 and Iran is meant only to put “more time on the clock” inorder to negotiate a final deal – a comprehensive agreement that will ensurethat Iran backs away from its military nuclear ambitions. As the internationalcommunity embarks on its most difficult proliferation challenge yet, whatlessons can be drawn from confrontations with other determined proliferators?What model best applies? In addressing this question, the article looks at encountersby the international community with other...
The wave of uprisings that swept through Arab states in recent years has transformed the Middle East. Against this background, there is a need for a comprehensive analytical model to help assess both the likelihood of regime stability and the probability of regime change. This study proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change. Assigning numerical weight to each of these elements, it analyzes the dynamics between them. Looking at case studies of four states through the prism of the proposed...
From the reactions of senior Israeligovernment officials, one might think that Iran left Geneva with approval fromthe P5+1 to develop nuclear weapons, and that the agreement reached will allowIran to become a “nuclear threshold state.” However, the agreement signed inGeneva is a preliminary and partial agreement only, with limited steps requiredof each side and valid for six months, during which time the P5+1 and Iran willattempt to reach a final, comprehensive agreement. To be sure, interimagreements have a tendency to evolve into...
<div align=”justify”> Even before the ink used in signing the recent deal with Iran has dried, it became clear that the real significance of the agreement will not be determined by its intricate and complicated wording, but rather by the way in which it will be implemented in practice. Like many other past cases on the international scene, it was only to be expected that contradicting interpretations by the various parties will pop up around this agreement, too. </div>
The agreement between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Iran, announced on November 11, 2013, is a culmination of sorts of many years of disagreement between these two parties. The IAEA has long sought the right to inspect all nuclear-related facilities and sites in Iran, including the right to search for undeclared facilities. More specifically, the IAEA wanted Iran to reinstate IAEA rights under the Additional Protocol, which permits intrusive inspections, and to address the many questions regarding the...
Israel and the United States share the strategic goal of preventing Iran’s attainment of nuclear weapons. Both countries agree that only two forms of leverage can block Iran’s dash to the bomb: economic sanctions and a credible military threat. However, Israel and the US diverge in their assessments as to the scope and timing for effective use of these levers. Consequently, there is a huge gap between them on how to reach the goal of stopping Iran’s military nuclear program, which strategy is appropriate at this time,...
At the onset of the second round of talks in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1, the West is projecting optimism on the chances for a diplomatic solution on Iran’s nuclear program. Anyone whose aspiration is to solve this crisis peacefully hopes that the optimism is warranted, but optimism must not be allowed to turn into complacency. Indeed, close scrutiny of the situation indicates a possible alternative plan by Tehran to any abandonment of its nuclear program, based on a strategy to ensure that Iran will become a de facto...
Transparency, forexample, in the nuclear realm, tends to be regarded as an inherently positivevalue in international relations circles – to wit, the more transparent youare, the better. But is this true across the board? In Israel’s case, not beingtransparent in the nuclear realm has enabled Israel to maintain a low profile,which has both served its interests and had advantages for the wider region. Byvirtue of Israel not talking, issuing threats, or taking other action withregard to its assumed nuclear capabilities, the...
While over the past weeks expectations of adeal with Iran have been running high in many quarters, the first round ofnuclear negotiations following the election of Hassan Rouhani has ended with noconcrete progress save the promise of another meeting early next month wherethe Iranian proposal will undergo further scrutiny. There were certainly somenew features that characterized these talks: they were conducted in English,the Iranian proposal was presented in a PowerPoint presentation and reportedlyincluded a serious and...
