Disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries regarded as allies cooperating in a number of theaters on various matters over the past decade, have escalated recently. The conflicting interests on oil output limits compound existing disputes involving considerations of prestige and status in the regional and international theaters. Additional elements undermine the image of a united regional front against Iran, and could have a negative impact on regional initiatives toward normalization with Israel....
As in previous rounds of fighting against Hamas, Operation Guardian of the Walls exacted three types of economic costs: the direct military cost, reduction in economic activity, and property damage caused by the rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. Some of these costs are difficult to estimate, and it is thus too early to assess the full economic consequences of the operation. In addition, the parties responsible for these estimates, that is, the Ministry of Defense on the one hand and the Ministry of Finance on the other, have opposing...
In late March 2021, maritime traffic in the Suez Canal was blocked in both directions, after a ship ran aground in the canal. The event exposed the vulnerability of the global trading system, and highlighted the medium and long-term challenges to international transportation of marine cargo in general, and for Egypt in particular. For Israel, the crisis resulting from the obstruction of the Suez Canal showcases its potential for serving as a land bridge between Eilat and the Mediterranean Sea. The Europe Asia Pipeline Company has...
After a decade of civil war, Assad still rules in Syria, but the country’s economy is in ruins, with no recovery on the horizon. Any effort toward reconstruction is contingent on internal stability, removal of the sanctions, and multi-level foreign aid – developments that appear highly unlikely. Syria’s economy is currently functioning on a minimal level, with a small state budget designed to maintain the regime and its mechanisms. Even though the state budget is smaller in real terms than in previous years, Syria is...
The defense budget for 2021 continues the defense budget of 2020, which itself is a continuation of the 2019 defense budget, approved in March 2018. The sequence of continuation budgets constitutes a management failure by the government, which for political reasons has not passed a regular state budget. In this situation, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi has taken upon himself a particularly difficult mission – managing a multi-year plan (the Tnufa plan) that is not backed by a regular defense budget and a multi-year budget agreement,...
The coronavirus crisis has raised public awareness of natural hazards and pushed them to the top of the global risk list. The World Economic Forum in Davos (January 2021) determined that infectious diseases are the highest risk in terms of their impact on the world in the coming year. In the medium term, even after the pandemic is over, the socioeconomic consequences of the coronavirus crisis will remain a leading risk. The forum also highlighted other natural risks, including extreme climate change and man-made environmental damage....
China’s economic involvement in Israel has expanded over the past decade, as Chinese companies have invested in a host of Israeli firms, primarily in high-tech fields. An in-depth and comprehensive examination of this topic shows that Chinese investments in Israel reached a peak in 2018, after which they began to wane. There are several reasons for this: changes in priorities in China, the consequences of the global coronavirus pandemic, and perhaps also a change in the investment climate in Israel with regard to Chinese companies...
A decade after the regional upheaval, the struggle over the shape of the Middle East continues to play out in two realms: over the regional order, between four camps seeking to advance their ideology and interests; and within the states, between rulers and publics clashing over fundamental economic, social, and identity-related problems that have not been resolved since the Arab Spring and have even intensified. 2020 saw a decline in the confidence of the Iran-led Shiite axis; a rise in the assertiveness of the axis led by Turkey; a...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The strategic assessment for Israel for 2021 is shaped by significant uncertainty in three principal areas: the level of success in coping with COVID-19; the modus operandi and policies of the new administration in the United States; and the political developments in Israel. The current assessment is based on a broader conception of national security, which places greater weight than in the past on the domestic arena and on threats to internal stability, social cohesion, values, and fabric of life. This of course does not detract...
The State of Israel’s strategic balance in 2020 is the basis for the policy recommendations for the coming year. In implementing these recommendations, it is important to emphasize the State of Israel’s overarching objectives: to strengthen Israel as a Jewish, democratic, secure, prosperous, and just state that is at peace with its neighbors. These objectives define Israel’s purpose, both in the eyes of the Israeli public and in the eyes of the international community.
The State of Israel’s strategic efforts and...
If 2020 is remembered for the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 stands to be the year of the vaccine. Nonetheless, the coronavirus will continue to shape the world, and the likely scenario is a gradual decline of the pandemic, marked by sporadic outbreaks. In the second half of the year, the effects of the vaccine will be felt, the Biden administration will settle in, and there may be a new government in Israel. The international system remains polarized, even as each country focuses on its individual problems. The Biden...
