The battles underway since February 2015 in the Daraa district in southern Syria between the Syrian army, the Iranian Quds forces, and Hizbollah on the one hand, and various rebel groups and organizations on the other, are important for the actors involved, as well as for those not involved. These battles are part of a struggle for control of the Damascus-Quneitra-Daraa triangle, a crucial area for both the consolidation of the Bashar al-Assad regime and its overthrow. The opposing sides attribute great importance to the results of...
The final document of the 2010 NPT Review Conference (RevCon) included a section stipulating the intent to work toward convening a conference on a Middle East WMDFZ by the end of 2012. By late 2012, however, it became clear that a conference would not take place. Notwithstanding Israel’s fundamental reservation regarding the conference’s mandate and the NPT umbrella, one of the notable aspects is the positive role that Israel has played. Israel’s positive approach has gained important recognition among the conveners, reflected in...
Even if the document of principles made public by the US administration is fully implemented, it is not likely to achieve President Obama’s goal, i.e., “to cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon.” Rather, the agreement would serve as the first step in a much broader strategy designed to deter Iran from violating the agreement by means of capabilities in identifying and stopping Iranian violations. Therefore, the announcement on the understandings achieved and the continuation of the negotiations should...
The six scenarios analyzed in the article indicate that an agreement between the world powers and Iran on the Iranian nuclear program based on the Lausanne parameters with necessary amendments is preferable to the current situation, even if it is not “a good deal.” The alternative to the improved Lausanne agreement would consist of severe and effective sanctions that may possibly result in a better agreement but might also lead to the realization of the dangers inherent in a failure of the talks, Iran’s continued nuclear activity,...
On April 13, 2015, Russia announced the release and upcoming delivery of the advanced S-300 aerial defense systems to Iran. The shipment had been held up for the last six years, even though Russia contended that these systems were meant for defensive rather than offensive purposes and despite the fact that Iran had already paid for them. Israel cannot ignore the development, but it must also avoid creating a serious crisis with Russia. Therefore Israel would do well to signal Moscow that it intends to reexamine a host of issues...
The Corker-Cardin bill approved unanimously by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 14, 2015 is a compromise that will allow President Barack Obama to continue negotiating with Iran and even conclude an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. For its part, Israel finds itself in a situation in which it cannot try to change the agreement formulated between the Republicans and Democrats in the Committee in any fundamental way without at least the tacit support of the White House. Any criticism of the bill on the part of...
The significance of this week’s visit to Moscow by PA President Mahmoud Abbas should be assessed in the context of Russia’s increasing effort to influence the Israeli-Palestinian political process and advance a settlement of the conflict. This particular effort appears well-suited to Russia’s new Middle East policy, reflected in the decision, announced on April 13, 2015, to supply the S-300 missile system to Iran. Over the years, it has appeared that Russia was willing to accept participation in the Israeli-Palestinian political...
Following the April 2, 2015 statement on parameters toward a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear program formulated between the P5+1 and Iran, the Israeli government announced its demand that the final agreement include Iran’s recognition of Israel. President Obama was quick to reject the condition, arguing that it amounts to Israel’s demand that no agreement be signed unless Iran undertakes a comprehensive reform of its regime. Nonetheless, this does not mean that there was no point in Israel raising the issue. On the...
The parameters of the future, comprehensive agreement between Iran and the world powers, as made public by the US administration last week, highlight the problematic nature of the ostensible agreement between Iran and the P5+1. The coming three months promise continued negotiations that are meant to result in a final agreement that would significantly reduce the danger of the Iranian nuclear program becoming a military program for producing nuclear weapons. The article presents insights on the parameters made public and policy...
It has been a long time since Arab countries managed to unite for the sake of taking substantive action, especially military, in order to defend their own interests. However, Iran’s efforts to penetrate various arenas and expand its influence throughout the region are an ominous threat to at least some Arab states. Therefore, one can already speak of a collective Arab achievement in light of the Arab nations’ ability to come together to deal with the inherent threat of increased Iranian influence in the region. The Saudi-led...
The attempt to establish a Sunni pact against the background of the challenges created by the turmoil in the Arab world and the strengthening of Iran’s power in the region is not new. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia do not have a tradition of good relations in order to forge stronger relations at the current time. There have been some periods in which their relationship has been closer, such as the period between 2005 and the first signs of turmoil in the Arab world, but these were exceptions, not the norm. However, because Riyadh...
While an arrangement that leaves Iran as a nuclear threshold state may be the lesser of all evils for the United States, it can be expected to be very bad for Israel. A signed agreement of this sort will widen the existing disputes between the Israeli government and the US administration, as well as the gaps in positions on how to deal with Iran. A dangerous shadow may be cast over the strategic relations between Israel and the US. At the same time, Israel stands to gain certain advantages with an agreement that stops Iran at the...
