The battle raging between the US President and Congress on the Iranian nuclear deal should not eclipse the story behind the future removal of US sanctions. The President has the power to remove Executive Order sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear activities after Implementation Day – when the IAEA verifies the implementation by Iran of the nuclear-related measures stipulated in the agreement. If the President withstands an attempt to override his veto (i.e., of the rejection of the agreement by Congress), his lifting of...
While Netanyahu probably had little if any chance of stopping the deal that materialized over the past year, he still has a role to play in trying to mitigate some of its worst implications – and this he should do. For this to happen, there is no substitute for focused discussions with the US administration, now and in the future. In this regard, Netanyahu is not doing himself or Israel any favors by continuing to intervene in the Congressional process that is currently underway. His perceived interference only exacerbates relations...
Following the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the world powers and Iran, Russia was quick to call on the United States to stop the NATO missile defense deployments in Europe, on the grounds that Iran will no longer pose a nuclear threat to Alliance countries. However, while the agreement could delay Iran’s ability to break out to a nuclear weapon by up to one year, the JCPOA dos not call for the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. NATO can therefore claim that there is no reason to scale...
In the fast-changing reality of the Middle East, the status of the Iran deal is just one issue, albeit a major one, in the long race for the White House. The ability of Israel to influence US political and military policies in the Middle East should not be confused by campaign language. Still, developments in the campaign do provide lessons for Israel. The Republican Party eschewed the non-interventionism of Ron Paul four years ago, with the lion’s share of the party holding to a hawkish line on foreign policy and blanket...
On August 5, 2015, President Barack Obama delivered an address that included criticism of Israel’s stance on the nuclear agreement with Iran. Although his specific remarks were particularly poignant, the overall message was not new. Indeed, regular statements by the President, Secretary of State Kerry, and other leading members of the administration since the agreement was signed in Vienna are intended to persuade Congress and US public opinion of the value of the nuclear agreement and why it merits United States approval. The...
Although the Vienna agreement reduces the chances of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons within the coming decade, it does not completely preclude the possibility that Iran will acquire a bomb. In fact, the agreement actually provides Iran with an alternative route for doing so, thereby increasing the chances of this occurring during the second decade of the agreement. Given this threat, the United States must develop an appropriate response. First, it must rehabilitate the credibility of a military option in the form of a surgical...
The strikes by the Turkish air force in Syria, which began on July 24, 2015, along with Turkey’s intention to establish a safe zone in northwestern Syria, inspired the headline “Turkey Joins the Coalition against the Islamic State,” even though Turkey has already been a member of this coalition since it was founded in 2014. In addition to the change in Turkish policy, the question arises of Turkey’s long term commitment to the coalition. Another question is whether Turkey is not already giving precedence to the struggle against the...
In addition to its direct implications for the nuclear realm, the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program creates a host of other challenges for Israel. These challenges concern primarily the Palestinian and Syrian arenas, the delegitimization arena, and Israel’s special relationship with the United States, including its standing vis-à-vis the administration and the battle for US public opinion. • The US drive to sign an agreement with Iran reflects a strategic choice based on the premise that Iran is part of the solution to the problems...
The nuclear agreement reached by the major powers with Iran is not good news for Saudi Arabia, because the agreement means that Iran, Riyadh’s main ideological and geo-strategic rival, has received international recognition as a nuclear threshold state. Saudi Arabia regards this highly significant development as evidence of Iran’s growing power. In addition to the “technical” significance of the agreement, the kingdom fears that the deal is an opening to an Iranian-American rapprochement at the expense of its own relations with the...
The agreement reached last week in Vienna between the world powers and Iran on Iran’s nuclear program, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is a highly problematic agreement that entails risks to Israel’s national security. It is very likely that the agreement will be implemented and its practical measures put into effect, and it appears that Israel has little ability to influence the process at this point. Thus the United States and Israel must now prepare for the problematic scenarios that may unfold in the wake of...
