The confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah that has unfolded since the abduction of two soldiers on July 12 has prompted considerable speculation about future Syrian policy. One school of thought argues that Syria under President Bashar al-Asad will not stop at the brink and will actively support Hizbullah. However, the regime’s behavior in this confrontation suggests that a rational calculation of vital interests will prompt Asad to adopt a pragmatic stance.
The Hizbullah operation that resulted in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and the death of eight others has ignited a major confrontation between that organization and Israel. Unlike previous clashes in recent years, in which it could be expected that the clash would be short-lived because of the interest of both sides preventing escalation and returning to acceptable rules of the game, the provocation and its consequences are too great this time to allow Israel to return to the status quo ante. That would signal to Hizbullah...
Hizbullah can be accurately described as at a crossroads ever since the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from southern Lebanon in 2000, and even more so since the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005. Both events sharpened the choice between two paths that the movement has tried to follow since its inception: the Lebanese path, embodied in its political-parliamentary activity, and the regional/universal Islamist path, expressed in independent military action. Absent a decisive test of force between the movement and...
On April 3rd, the Lebanese “National Dialogue Forum” convened but was only able to decide that it would meet again at the end of the month. This habit of meeting and immediately dispersing has become a pattern since the beginning of February and is explained by both the structural problems and the contentious issues facing the Forum, none of which are likely to be resolved in the near future.
On October 21, German investigator Detlev Mehlis submitted to the UN Security Council his interim report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The report, which accuses the Syrian authorities of being behind the murder and of subsequently trying to sabotage the investigation, has caused the ground to tremble in Damascus.
The exchange of fire across Israel’s northern border in mid-May has once again focused attention on Hizbullah and raised questions about the movement’s future in the wake of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Some analysts interpret the clash as evidence of Hizbullah’s intention to escalate tensions and provoke a confrontation; others believe that the movement prefers a period of quiet, if only for tactical reasons, and that what it really wants now is to divert the heavy domestic and international pressure to...
At the last meeting between Rafiq al-Hariri and Syrian President Bashar al-Asad in August 2004, Asad asked Hariri to support the Syrian demand to extend the term of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud for another three years. Later on, Hariri related that Asad had even threatened that if he and his friends did not support this demand, Damascus would break their wrists and that he had accompanied the threat with a movement of his hand that left no doubt as to his seriousness.
Last week, the governments of Syria and Lebanon announced that Syrian forces in Lebanon would be redeployed outside of Lebanese population centers and that Damascus even intends to pull about half of its troops completely out of Lebanon. Syrian sources stressed that these steps are in keeping with the 1989 Taef Agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war. But they also admitted that they are a signal to the international community, and especially the United States, that Syria is responsive to voices from Washington demanding Syrian...
The Israel-Lebanon border following the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000 experienced much more quiet and far less Hizbollah activity than was predicted by many in the Israeli security establishment in advance of the withdrawal. This study explores Hizbollah interests and exigencies, and examines what motivates Hizbollah to attack or to act with restraint. A balance of domestic and international influences, specifically Syrian, Iranian, Lebanese, and Israeli have made Hizbollah careful to abide by defined rules of the...
The Israel-Lebanon border following the IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000 experienced much more quiet and far less Hizbollah activity than was predicted by many in the Israeli security establishment in advance of the withdrawal. This study explores Hizbollah interests and exigencies, and examines what motivates Hizbollah to attack or to act with restraint. A balance of domestic and international influences, specifically Syrian, Iranian, Lebanese, and Israeli have made Hizbollah careful to abide by defined rules of the...
