Hizbullah's Strategy following Syria's Withdrawal from Lebanon

The exchange of fire across Israel’s northern border in mid-May has once again focused attention on Hizbullah and raised questions about the movement’s future in the wake of Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon. Some analysts interpret the clash as evidence of Hizbullah’s intention to escalate tensions and provoke a confrontation; others believe that the movement prefers a period of quiet, if only for tactical reasons, and that what it really wants now is to divert the heavy domestic and international pressure to disarm. Whatever the case, Hizbullah clearly faces hard choices of the sort it has not had to deal with in the past. The next few months will be critical in determining the movement’s future course and perhaps even its very existence.